This fall's Canadian film crop: will they come to the United States?

One fun game in a international film festival is guessing which films might come to theatres, mainstream runs or a week in a large metropolis, or go straight to cable, or only end up on a specialty foreign language channel, such as TV5.

Canadian films are the hardest to figure out since the English-speaking market is dominant with U.S. films, plus occasional quirky British or Australian movies into the mix. For every "Chloe," there are tens of "Trigger" films.

My week of Canadian movies actually started in Chicago with the aforementioned "Trigger." In 2010, "Trigger" was the opening night film at the Toronto International Film Festival and the closing night of the Windsor International Film Festival. The first, and so far only, time it played in Chicago, 3rd largest city in the United States, was one night in a gay and lesbian film festival. If you are searching for lesbian material, if you blink at the wrong time, you will miss the moment.

The film played on a Monday night and attracted about 9-10 people, including myself. I had seen the film in Windsor and loved it, but knew it had little press outside Canada. If you didn't know the back story, and why would you, the film might not seem like a big deal.

For American awareness, the film stars Molly Parker, who has been in "Deadwood" and "Swingtown" on U.S. TV and has been in the "Center of the World," "Pure," and "Marion Bridge." You might not know the name, but you might know the face.

Nobody else is known in U.S. circles, other than Sarah Polley, and even Polley's relatives might not recognize her cameo in "Trigger," and maybe Don McKellar, but again, not well known in the States. Such is life when trying to see whether Canadian films will come to the United States.

Thursday through Sunday, I saw 9 new Canadian films in the 2011 Windsor International Film Festival. I have been attending this festival for the last 5 years, ever since I stumbled upon the festival, seeing a sign for "Breakfast with Scot," starring Tom Cavanaugh ("Ed") in a film you probably don't know. This was by far the best year for the festival, in every imaginable measuring stick. If you stay in downtown Windsor, everything is within walking distance and it's a lot safer than downtown Detroit, just across the Detroit River.

So I thought it would be fun to score the 9 movies that I saw in terms of whether Americans might see these films some day. We'll list them in order of likelihood of reaching U.S. audiences.

Film: Take this Waltz
Synopsis: Young married woman meets a tempting stranger. Will she go for the affair or stay true to her husband?
Chances of coming to United States: 40 (of 100)
Why it will come: Writer/director Sarah Polley has some foothold as actress in the States. Her first movie got her a Oscar nomination (for best adapted screenplay) and her leading lady was nominated for Best Actress. This film features three American actors with name recognition (Seth Rogen [though he's really Canadian], Michelle Williams, Sarah Silverman).
Why it won't come: Polley isn't that well-known, and female directors aren't treated as well as male directors by the system. The film has a definite Canadian bent, and handles some scenes in a way where American audiences are used to going, even indie film lovers.
Where is it destined to go: This movie could get limited play across the country, but is more likely seen in major cities. You'll see this on cable at some point, at least 12-18 months from now.

Film: Cloudburst
Synopsis: Two senior citizen lesbians are separated, so they decide to run away to Canada to get married. Along the way they pick up a young male hitchhiker.
Chances of coming to United States: 35
Why it will come: Olympia Dukakis is well-known and is rather hilarious. Brenda Fricker is somewhat known, mostly in indie circles. The scenery is gorgeous, and the story is funny.
Why it won't come: Dukakis' character will shock most of her fans with her language. Seriously. Some of the words are ones I don't even use. Some of the jokes are graphic, but very funny. Some of the nudity is in your face, and that nudity is male.
Where is it destined to go: Gay and lesbian festivals, for sure. A little large city play, but otherwise limited cable.

Film: Keyhole
Synopsis: A guy is trying to get to his wife inside their home in this homage to Ulysses.
Chances of coming to United States: 8
Why it will come: Guy Maddin is somewhat known in indie circles for his offbeat movies. Jason Patric, Isabella Rossellini, and Kids in the Hall alum Kevin McDonald are in the movie.
Why it won't come: This movie is Guy Maddin meets Guy Maddin meets David Lynch. Lots of older male full frontal nudity, some female nudity. Even by Maddin's standards, this is pretty out there.
Where is it destined to go: Cable without a doubt. Anything outside a big city, uh, no.

Film: Monsieur Lazhar
Synopsis: A new teacher comes into a classroom after the previous teacher committed suicide. He brings his own past perspective on the subject.
Chances of coming to United States: 0.2
Why it will come: This is Canada's entry for Best Foreign Language film for the Oscars. Well-done movie with lots of tidbits to absorb.
Why it won't come: Foreign-language movies with subtitles don't do well outside big cities. As far as Monsieur Lazhar goes in the Oscars world will improve the slight chances of making it onto American screens.
Where is it destined to go: Limited runs in big cities, no matter how well it does at the Oscars. Cable? A pretty good shot.

Film: Cafe de Flore
Synopsis: Parallel stories about an unhappy man who seems to have it all in Montréal and a Downs' syndrome boy in Paris in 1969.
Chances of coming to United States: 0.1
Why it will come: Same director who did C.R.A.Z.Y. Good use of Pink Floyd music. Vanessa Paradis is somewhat known in French films seen in the States.
Why it won't come: This movie takes you down a path that stretches the mind and imagination. This film made "Certified Copy" seem straightforward.
Where is it destined to go: A good shot at a limited run in major cities. Cable shouldn't be a problem.

Film: Down the Road Again
Synopsis: Follow-up to Canadian classic about two guys from the Maritimes going to the big city of Toronto to seek jobs and women.
Chances of coming to United States: 0.0
Why it will come: Unlike Olympia Dukakis' language, this won't offend anybody. Kathleen Robertson, a Canadian actress, is very well-known in American films and television. Doug McGrath in the lead was in Porky's as one of the coaches.
Why it won't come: Americans are more likely to know the SCTV parody of "Goin' Down the Road." Hokeyness factor won't fit in well even with a PG audience. Even a lot of Canadians haven't seen the original.
Where is it destined to go: Don't hold your breath. Not even sure cable makes sense, even though (some) Americans love wholesome movies, and this is pretty wholesome.

Film: Starbuck
Synopsis: A ne'er do well finds out his previous sperm donations has led to 533 children.
Chances of coming to United States: 0.001
Why it will come: Lead actor Patrick Huard was in "Bon Cop, Bad Cop." It's funny.
Why it won't come: French farces don't do well in the States, much less French-Canadian.
Where is it destined to go: Probably not even cable. Could see this remade into an American version, but it wouldn't be as funny.

Film: I am a good person, I am a bad person
Synopsis: Woman makes film with real-life daughter about mother and daughter who promote her film (within this film).
Chances of coming to United States: Less than 0.
Why it will come: Odd enough for Sundance Channel/IFC.
Why it won't come: Still not that interesting.
Where is it destined to go: Cable, maybe.

Film: La Sacree
Synopsis: Small town tries to get tourists, fast talker tries to get rich — somehow it all comes together.
Chances of coming to United States: Even less than 0.
Why it will come: Cute story. Novelty of first ever Francophone movie made in Ontario.
Why it won't come: Even Quebecois natives in the States might not want to see this.
Where is it destined to go: Good luck!

Comments

[Selah Beth]

Thanks for the rundown. I would love to Starbuck (I love Patrick Huard). A couple of the others sound great, or interesting too.

[Chad]

Thanks for that. I certainly had a wonderful time watching those Canadian films. The sensibility in these movies is worth traveling 300 miles to cross the border.