I was proud to work with Justin Trudeau as President. He's a hard-working, effective leader who takes on big issues like climate change. The world needs his progressive leadership now, and I hope our neighbors to the north support him for another term.
— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) October 16, 2019
Barack Obama's endorsement of Justin Trudeau reminds us that foreign policy was hardly discussed in Canada election 2019. There was a foreign policy debate scheduled but the Munk School of Global Affairs withdrew the debate citing Justin Trudeau's refusal to attend.
The shadow of the angry toddler weighed heavily on Trudeau in his first term. How do things look for Canada-U.S. relations with Trudeau 2.0?
Trump threat to withdraw from NAFTA should lead back to original Canada-U.S. free trade agreement
How the 2018 U.S. midterm elections might affect Canada
The joke that is the USMCA | CUSMA aka NAFTA 2.0 is almost certainly dead. The Democratic majority in the House in Congress, like the House of Commons in Canada, says they want to approve it but they don't. The Dems in the U.S. House want to make changes. The Canadian House would love to do the same but want to see what the U.S. Dems will do.
The trade deal isn't a priority in the U.S. House. The deal could pass the Canadian House of Commons with Liberals and Conservatives but Trudeau doesn't need to find a new reason to upset the NDP. Trudeau can use the NDP as an excuse to those in Washington.
The Bloc Quebecois made a big deal about getting compensation for Quebec dairy farmers over losing market share. The Liberals can keep that promise since the trade deal won't go through. Compensation would apply to the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Trudeau promised in the campaign that there would be no more sacrifice from the dairy industry. If Brexit goes through, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson or his replacement will have to deal with that issue.
The end of the trade deal has meant peace from most tariffs (softwood lumber, anyone). The tariffs brought economic decline and uncertainty to a population that had been suffering. The potential impeachment might hinder any threatened U.S. action on tariffs on automobiles or other unsettling trade threats.
Canola farmers in Canada latest pawn in China battle over Meng Wanzhou arrest
Meng Wanzhou is still under house arrest. She was arrested in December 2018, almost a full year ago. The United States wanted the Huawei CFO arrested for violating U.S. law. Canada has suffered the retaliation, not the United States.
Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig are still suffering in Chinese custody.
Donald Trump said he would speak to China about the situation. There is no proof such a conversation exists.
An extradition to the United States might shift the blame to the U.S. away from Canada. Or not. A decision will change the dynamic in this case. This was a key reason why American citizen Andrew Scheer needed to be more forthcoming about his dual citizenship.
Kelly Knight Craft gets to stop pretending to spend time in Canada
Protocol might have delayed the process to not name a U.S. Ambassador to Canada during the Canadian election. Aldona Wos has been the name we've heard though no news lately. Kelly Knight Craft has long been in her new job as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.
Influx of refugees to Canada is a challenge but problem lies at feet of Donald Trump
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh campaigned on suspending the Safe Third Country agreement. Getting the current U.S. government to suspend the agreement isn't likely no matter who is the Canadian prime minister. Trudeau could argue for a temporary suspension just to reduce the "mass migration" into Canada through illegal border control checkpoints.
The People's Party of Canada aka Maxime Bernier got shut down at the polls with no seats, including Bernier. Not to critique David Johnston, but the Leaders Debate Commission got hoodwinked to let Bernier into the debates. The irony is that if he had won his own seat, the party would easily be in the debates.
Bernier's ideas of limiting "mass immigration" was thankfully turned away by Canadian voters.
What a Justin Trudeau government might mean to the United States
We wrote a heady story in 2015 about the impact of the new Liberal government with the United States. Marijuana got legalised in Canada and didn't turn into a war between the countries.
The increased boost to the CBC has helped. Americans through CBC signals and/or Netflix are more aware of Canadian shows such as Schitt's Creek, Kim's Convenience, and Workin' Moms.
The Three Amigos concept may be permanently damaged mostly over how the United States and Mexico treated Canada in the trade negotiations. Ironically, the Three Amigos concept came up in the Trump impeachment hearings with 3 U.S. officials who were dealing with Ukraine. The latter flies in the face of what Three Amigos really should be.
Justin Trudeau wins second term as Canada PM but in a minority government
Trudeau is able to Choose Forward in Canada but has to work hard to minimize losses with the United States. One area where Trudeau could fight that would please the NDP, Greens, Conservatives (wait for it), and Quebec inside and outside the Bloc Quebecois is against the Trump people move to fight against the cap-and-trade system with California and Quebec.
The U.S. Department of Justice is suing California for entering into an agreement to cap greenhouse gas emissions and require companies to buy pollution credits.
California and Quebec along with Ontario had what was considered the best climate change option in North America. Trudeau should fight to keep the system in place.
Andrew Scheer did talk in the campaign about carrying the climate battle to other countries. The cap-and-trade system does that. They don't even have to give Trudeau credit since the deal started before Trudeau got into office and the federal government isn't involved.
A more proactive Trudeau can diffuse the carbon tax issue by insisting that provinces can come up with their own plan. This is the policy but Trudeau doesn't mention this. The Trudeau strategy of coming to the United States needs to get bolder in Trudeau 2.0 to show the United States that Canada wants to do more. Quebec and New York state could be good partners as well.
Hasan Minhaj gets a second round with Justin Trudeau on Patriot Act
Netflix might have more influence around the world than Trudeau has. The Patriot Act episode came before the blackface/brownface photos. The climate change elements of the show could be helped in a minority government. A whole lot less gets done in a minority government on a international scale.
The anti-Trudeau vitrol — online and otherwise, true or very false — was a big part of the Canada election 2019 campaign.
Brexit should remind UK, U.S., and Canada advantages to free movement
CanadianCrossing.com Canadian politics coverage
"The world needs his progressive leadership" from Barack Obama's endorsement of Justin Trudeau reminds us of a more hopeful time. Trudeau's first term was stronger around the world than in Canada.
The world does need Trudeau but a minority government will make foreign policy more difficult to accomplish outside of climate change. Canada voted for a more introspective direction for the country. Trudeau and the Liberals don't even have the guarantee of 4 more years in power.
The eventual loss of Angela Merkel in Germany, an uncertain race even in 2020 in the United States, and an even more uncertain race for prime minister of the UK will mean more eyes on Trudeau from a progressive standpoint. Those in the NDP and Greens can smirk all they want about Trudeau and progressive, but the world sees Trudeau in a different light. That light will help Canada's standing in the world, however much Canada finds solace in that notion.
Twitter capture: @barackobama
photo credit: CBC News Network
