In the United States, the choices are blue or red. In Canada, the choices expand beyond blue and red, but in practical terms, blue and red are the choices in selecting a prime minister. But recent Canadian federal elections have produced two conclusions: Canadians don't want to give the Conservatives a majority government, and don't trust Liberals with even a minority government.
So could Canadians vote orange this time around?
In the 20th and 21st century, the Canadian prime minister has either been Liberal or Conservative (the Unionist and National Liberal and Conservative Party movements from 1917-1921 were a combination of both). The colo(u)r scheme is the opposite of the United States — Red is for Liberal, Blue for Conservative. And Orange for the New Democratic Party.
Some similarities to the U.S. do abound: some of the NDP support in the polls is tied to NOTA; in Canada, there is an actual outlet for that sentiment. And the NDP has been crucial in coalition governments and minority governments in the past, often being the difference between the status quo and forcing another election.
The NDP is doing well in the polls in Quebec as an alternative to the Bloc Quebecois, the separatist party with MPs in Ottawa. But political experts are asking whether poll support for the NDP will translate into votes.
Even if the NDP does better at the polls, their support might not translate into more seats, and even more surprising, might give the Conservatives a majority government.
Breaking down each riding, votes for the NDP come from those who might otherwise vote Liberal or Bloc Quebecois. By splitting the non-Conservative vote, Conservative candidates can ride to victory. Voters who have sat out might pick the NDP, but until those voting percentage totals rise, the assumption is that Conservatives win by not losing.
Voting percentages have fallen in Canada in the last few elections. In 2008, the voting mark fell below 60% for the first time (59%). As a contrast, 2008 was the only time the U.S. voting rate was above 60% (64%). Themes designed to scare voters to pick a candidate or not pick a candidate are also designed to reduce overall voting.
In this campaign, we have seen student-led social media non-partisan campaigns (vote mobs) to encourage people to vote. Turnout for college students was less than 45% in the last election in 2008.
The inconsistency of Canadian voters at the moment does parallel U.S. voters in their frustration with the political system, though there are structural and cultural differences. As bad as Canadian turnout has been, its voting statistics are still much higher than in the States. But fewer Canadians have come out each time. The election cycle in 2011 might lead a pattern for the U.S. in 2012, or at least see how social media affects the Canadian vote.
The eyes of Canada will be on the May 2 election. At least one eye of the United States should be on the May 2 election up north.
Comments
You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.