Canada has 10 provinces, but Ontario is the largest province and the most influential province on the United States. So when Dalton McGuinty suddenly resigns as Ontario's premier, people pay a bit more attention on both sides of the border.
Ontario shares four of the five Great Lakes, and its land stretches from as far west as Minnesota to as far east as New York state. You might remember the Ontario ads that ran during the Vancouver Winter Olympics in 2010, promoting the fact that "Ontario's combined federal/provincial corporate income tax rate is lower than the average combined federal/state rate in the U.S." I noted two other advantages for business investment: education and health care costs.
McGuinty was the longest-serving premier in Canada at 9 years. The premier also prorogued Parliament, so the legislature won't meet until a new premier is sworn into office.
While going from governor to president is relatively easy in the U.S. political system, Canada does not have that provincial-federal connection. Yes, Bob Rae is the current Liberal Party leader and served as premier of Ontario while a member of the NDP. But a premier getting to be prime minister?
If Dalton McGuinty wants someday to be the prime minister, he will have to look very far back to find a role model. The only two prime ministers who served as a provincial premier were in the late 19th century.
Charles Tupper served 69 days as prime minister from May 1 until July 8 in 1896. Tupper had served as premier of Nova Scotia from 1864 to 1867. John Thompson is one of two prime ministers to die in office. Thompson served 2 years and a week from December 5, 1892 until December 12, 1894. Thompson also was premier of of Nova Scotia in 1882.
In the last provincial election this year, McGuinty went from a majority government to a minority government. So being head of a minority government could have a been a sign for a change. Even with the new Liberal premier, looks like Ontario will get another provincial election rather soon, but not until 2013.
McGuinty is 57 years old. If he wants to pursue the federal leadership post, McGuinty will get serious consideration. But he has a long road to travel to even get to be the leader. He offers no federal experience, though being Ontario's premier is a better job toward that goal than being in charge of Nova Scotia.
Perhaps the speculation is completely off-base. Maybe McGuinty knew this was time to start the next chapter not just for him but Ontario Liberals. The only thing we know for sure is that there will be much more to come on this story, both for Ontario and McGuinty.
photo credit: Fred Chartrand/The Canadian Press
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