If Americans — under penalty of death or on a game show — had to name one Canadian prime minister, chances are they would say Pierre Trudeau.
Or Margaret Trudeau's husband. Or Garry Trudeau, who is the creator of "Doonesbury" and is not related to the former prime minister.
Pierre Trudeau hasn't been prime minister of Canada since 1984 yet he is still very memorable in the eyes of people who don't know much about Canada otherwise.
That legacy, good and bad, will be brought out once again as Justin Trudeau, son of the former prime minister and current MP from the Papineau riding in Montréal, announces today that he is running for the leadership of the Liberal Party.
The Liberal Party has fallen to third for the first time in its history. And the party has had a bad habit of changing leaders after a defeat. The Liberals have gone from Paul Martin (first majority, then minority) to Stephane Dion to Michael Ignatieff to the interim leader Bob Rae.
In the same timeframe, Stephen Harper has been the head of the Conservative Party.
Americans are used to father/son issues in determining leaders in the last few years with George W. Bush (daddy was president), Mitt Romney (daddy ran for president). Even Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have similar backgrounds of not having fathers around during childhood.
Trudeau has a number of issues to consider as to whether he will be effective as the Liberal Party leader, and of course, there is no guarantee that Trudeau will win the leadership position.
Cons
Youth. While that has been a positive trait in some American leaders (John F. Kennedy, Clinton, Obama), Canada hasn't seen a similar breakthrough. Trudeau, 40, has only been in Parliament since 2008. The youth angle may not be so bad, especially if he is given time in the role. After all, unlike the U.S. system, Trudeau would be the Liberal Party leader for quite awhile before being able to be prime minister. By contrast, Stephen Harper is 53 and has been either the opposition leader or prime minister since 2002.
Quebec. Though Trudeau represents a riding in Montréal, relying on his father won't score him points in the province. And Liberals have been blown out at the polls going back to the sponsorship scandal. The Liberals fell to third place in part due to the number of seats the NDP acquired in Quebec in the last election.
Inexperience. When Bill Clinton won the race for president in 1992, he has been governor of Arkansas for 12 years. Trudeau has four years in Parliament, three of those in the official Opposition Party.
Pros
Leadership. Canada needs charisma in its leaders even more than the United States. And the Liberals haven't had that since Paul Martin. Dion and Igantieff had their problems in that they didn't come across well to average Canadians. Rae has been a fine interim leader, but he wouldn't be able to lead the party into the future.
Being his own man. Trudeau's reluctance to take advantage of his father's name has endeared him as a candidate. And though the last name will be the same, Justin knows he will have to make his mark as a 21st century Trudeau. We've seen the "being his own man" backfire severely with George W. Bush, but Justin Trudeau don't have that kind of legacy from his father, nor does he seem to have the desire for revenge.
Youth. While youth is a con, Trudeau looks more attractive as a candidate than the other Liberal Party leader contenders. And Canada loves Barack Obama, possibly more than the United States does.
Fighter. Trudeau needs to be a figurative fighter in the uphill battle to bring the Liberals back to power. He showed that off literally earlier this year in a charity boxing match where he knocked out Conservative Sen. Patrick Brazeau in a third-round TKO victory. Trudeau entered the bout as a severe underdog.
Trudeau faces a number of challengers for the position, including previous contender Dominic LeBlanc (New Brunswick) and Deborah Coyne. Though Coyne is not in Parliament (not a requirement in Canadian politics though she would run for a seat if elected), she has her own Pierre Trudeau legacy, as she is the one-time girlfriend of Pierre Trudeau and mother to Justin's half-sister.
The next Liberal Party leader, even if that is Justin Trudeau, will have more external problems than internal. The NDP dominating in Quebec, though that support is slipping and could easily be taken away. The distrust out West about the Liberals, especially in the current power province of Alberta. The ease at which the Conservatives have been able to give an identity to a Liberal Party leader before that person can self-identify. The continued edge the Conservatives have in the 905 area code (Toronto suburbs) and rural seats in Southern Ontario.
Even with Justin Trudeau's pros and cons, he may be the Liberals last chance for a long time to get back to second or possibly first in the minds of the Canadian voters. Trudeau has a long road ahead of him with a lot of potholes. In many ways, he will have to be better than his father just to get to the point of contending to be a future Canadian prime minister.
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