Editor's note: This article has been updated to reflect new Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Dion.
The official transition of prime ministerial power from Stephen Harper to Justin Trudeau happens later today. Harper will resign as prime minister shortly before Trudeau will be sworn in as Canada's 23rd prime minister.
The new prime minister of Canada will have a lot on his plate in terms of Canadians. The list of current court challenges from the Harper Government is striking in its length and breadth.
Those south of the border who are interested in the new government beyond the new prime minister's looks are already wondering, "How will the new Trudeau Government change Canada's relationship with the United States?"
Even though the Trudeau Government is hours away from starting, we wanted to weigh in with our own ideas.
Marijuana
With gay marriage tourism out of the way, Canada might attract marijuana tourism.
"Canada's current system of marijuana prohibition does not work," the Liberal election platform said. "We will remove marijuana consumption and incidental possession from the Criminal Code and create new, stronger laws to punish more severely those who provide it to minors, those who operate a motor vehicle while under its influence and those who sell it outside of the new regulatory framework."
Thanks to the Harper Government, there is a commercial industry for medical marijuana thanks to the government's decision to take Health Canada out of the equation in providing medicinal marijuana.
One distinct difference between the two countries is that hemp is legal in Canada for seed, grain, and fibre production while hemp is illegal in the United States, even for non-marijuana purposes.
This isn't the first time that Canada or even the Liberal Party have tried to address this issue. In 2003, the Jean Chrétien Government wanted to decriminalize possession for personal use. 15 or fewer grams would have drawn a fine, while 15-30 grams could have resulted in a ticket. The bill died when Parliament was prorogued, however, there was intense pressure from the Drug Enforcement Administration under George W. Bush that threatened to slow down border crossings.
The Paul Martin Government submitted a similar bill in 2004 under a minority government. That bill died when the government lost a confidence vote.
In 2015, recreational marijuana is fully legal in Alaska, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington. 2 of those 4 states border Canada.
One can understandably argue that Americans would more likely go to one of the U.S. states for marijuana tourism than to Canada. After all, you don't have to deal with customs or border police. However, those in the Eastern U.S. might pick driving a short distance over flying 2,000 miles. If the exchange rate stays in the 20%-25% range, buying legal marijuana in Canada can result in a discount too good to resist.
Prostitution
While marijuana gets the recent headlines, prostitution could get similar headlines depending on what the Liberals want to do with Bill C-36.
Bill C-36 was the Harper Government's reaction to a Supreme Court of Canada decision in December 2013 striking down Canada's prostitution laws, but giving the government a year to write new ones.
Bill C-36 has been criticized for, among other things, forcing sex workers even more underground.
The Trudeau Government could simply let a case challenging Bill C-36 go to the Supreme Court of Canada and see if the Court would rule against the relatively new legislation. In the Canada v Bedford ruling, the Court found unconstitutional the laws prohibiting brothels, public communication concerning prostitution, and living on the profits.
While this won't be a top priority for the Trudeau Government, if the government decides to come up with a more-friendly sex worker prostitution law, the resulting publicity will make Canada desirable in a tourist way similar to the proposed marijuana laws.
The irony is that even Bill C-36 hasn't changed the basic approach to Canada's prostitution laws where prostitution is legal though solicitation is illegal.
CBC
Americans who receive CBC TV signals through antenna or cable south of the border. Those who enjoy CBC Radio One programs through U.S. distribution (Q, As It Happens). People who watch "The National" online and "Schitt's Creek" on cable TV. Listeners of CBC Radio 2 and CBC Radio 3 via the Internet or satellite radio.
The incoming Trudeau Government promises to restore Harper cuts and add more CBC funding, positively affecting these and other shows. Of the $380 million in new arts funding, $150 million will go to the CBC.
What the 2015 Canadian federal election means to CBC and other arts funding
The Canada Council for the Arts, Telefilm Canada, and the National Film Board will also get substantial increases in funding. That doesn't directly affect Americans but Canadian arts that otherwise would not have been created can positively impact Americans and others outside Canada.
Keystone XL pipeline
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has said the new Canadian government won’t affect a decision on the Keystone XL pipeline. That is along the lines of saying "The sun will come up in the East" or "Donald Trump is loud": we know these things are true but we rarely say them out loud.
While Trudeau has supported the Keystone XL pipeline project, chances are high that Trudeau won't pressure the Obama Administration about the project and would take no for an answer, unlike Harper.
TransCanada came out this week asking the State Department for a suspension of its application for the Keystone XL pipeline. This may be a stall tactic to negotiate with Nebraska/waiting for a new president in 2017. The action does its part to put the pipeline in doubt.
If Obama does reject the pipeline, even though the southern half of the pipeline is being built, the two leaders will have to work together on options to get more Canadian oil to the United States. Trudeau could seemingly score points on both sides of the border if he could help get Alberta to build refineries to process the oil to reduce the risk if/when there is a spill.
Trudeau understands that the relationship with the United States is more complex than a potential pipeline. The fact that the two leaders agree on the need for alternative energy sources will help in battling climate change. What Trudeau will do on climate change will affect Americans in the sense that the air from Canada will be in better shape once new policies are in place.
Trans Pacific Partnership
Trudeau played this potential campaign issue down the middle in true centrist fashion. While that stance seemed cowardly, Trudeau now has the chance to establish what works and what doesn't. There may be pressure from south of the border to go along with the TPP, but there are significant concerns from the dairy industry in Quebec and Ontario to auto parts manufacturers in southwest Ontario.
Trudeau is in a really bad situation with the TPP but he has to think of Canada more than the United States with this trade agreement.
Bringing back the Three Amigos
This isn't as sexy as marijuana and prostitution, but the U.S.-Canada relationship has suffered in recent years. That isn't a criticism of Stephen Harper for his politics but about his reluctance to engage with U.S. President Barack Obama.
Canada was scheduled to host the 2015 Three Amigos summit in late February, but the Harper Government indefinitely postponed the summit. To no one's surprise, the summit was never rescheduled.
This link will take you to our Three Amigos coverage from 2014; there was no 2013 meeting.
Stephen Harper postpones Three Amigos summit
Three Amigos meet in Mexico, but not for long
The experts focus on the similarities in philosophy and approach between centrist leaders Barack Obama and Justin Trudeau and how they will get along better. While this is absolutely true, we have seen leaders of different stripes get along a lot better than the Obama-Harper experience.
While the Three Amigos concept is crucial for the future of the continent, Obama and Trudeau should find ways to communicate and meet with each other.
The two leaders should have some time to exchange notes during the G20 summit in Antalya, Turkey, on November 15-16 and during the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris that starts November 30.
Eventually, the two countries should have talks in each other's country.
The next Three Amigos summit isn't likely to happen until early 2016 simply due to logistics. The symbolism of hosting the Three Amigos summit in Canada can't be overlooked. Harper only hosted a single Three Amigos summit in 2007 in Montebello, Quebec. The Harper Government was supposed to host in Wakefield, Quebec in 2011, but like 2015, initially postponed the meeting before not having the summit at all.
Of course, the 2016 Three Amigos summit would be Obama's last summit as president, unless the three countries decided something "radical" such as having 2 summits in a year.
Secretary of State John Kerry and new Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Dion also need time to start a new dialogue between the foreign policy leaders. Trudeau announced his cabinet today: some of the potential candidates were Chrystia Freeland (Toronto University-Rosedale), former astronaut Marc Garneau (Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount), Sven Spengemann (Mississauga-Lakeshore), and Catherine McKenna (Ottawa Centre).
Fighter jets in the battle with ISIL
The initial headlines focused on Trudeau telling Obama that this will happen. We are hoping without question that Trudeau returns Canada to more of a peacekeepers image around the world.
---
photos credit: Getty Images
Comments