"Should I stay or should I go? If you say that you are mine, I'll be here 'til the end of time."
The Clash lyrics are perfect as the United Kingdom decides whether to leave the European Union on June 23. The battle has a number of nuances but essentially comes down to trade vs. immigration.
If Canada got a vote, the United Kingdom would stay in place in the European Union. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau:
"More unity is a path toward greater prosperity. We have a great relationship with a strong and united Europe and certainly hope that that continues," Trudeau said in an interview with Reuters. "Britain is always going to have clout, it's just obviously amplified by its strength as part of the EU."
Trudeau did say the decision would be up to British voters.
Trudeau's stance is also consistent with his philosophy on diversity in trade and immigration. The Canadian prime minister criticized former London mayor Boris Johnson, the unofficial Brexit leader, for using the potential Canada-EU trade deal as an ideal example for an independent Britain.
U.S. President Barack Obama made his pro-EU views known verbally and in an op-ed in The Telegraph newspaper.
"The European Union doesn't moderate British influence — it magnifies it. A strong Europe is not a threat to Britain's global leadership; it enhances Britain's global leadership."
Battles such as the UK-EU saga are areas where most world leaders would be as neutral as Switzerland. The fact that both leaders were eager to share their opinions shows how important the stakes are. While immigration is an issue in both Canada and the United States, the stigma in Europe is much higher.
As for the future U.S. president, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said she wants a whole EU. "I think the European Union obviously is a very, very important institution," Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) said. "I would hope that they stay in, but that’s their decision."
"Oh yeah, I think they should leave." That was a brief, "oh by the way" kind of answer from presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
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If the United Kingdom leaves the EU, the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) wouldn't include England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Island. That treaty, worked out by the Harper Government, is stalled in Brussels. Canada and the UK would work out a trade deal at some point, but that wouldn't be a huge priority.
Canada and the European Union are having their own scrap over visa reciprocity since Canada requires visas for citizens of Romania and Bulgaria (the United States requires visas for 5 EU countries).
The European Union has threatened to require Canadians to get a visa to visit the EU; the original deadline of April 12 has been extended to July 12. The 3-month delay on the visas issue is that the EU doesn't want to require visas.
The proposed Brexit has no impact on the visas since the UK and Ireland wouldn't be subject even within the EU.
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The assassination of Labour MP Jo Cox on Thursday was an unbelievable tragedy. We continue to send our love and prayers to her family, friends, supporters, and constituents. Even if we don't want to admit this, the act will have an impact on the Brexit vote and Brexit was possibly a motive in the assassination. As The New York Times article noted, "politicians have said they will tighten immigration policy."
This vote is important but not worth killing anyone over this, especially someone who was doing a lot of great work and the potential of what Jo Cox would have offered.
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Negotiated diplomacy features a lot of posturing. Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau warned the UK that tens of thousands of jobs at Canadian firms in the United Kingdom are vulnerable. If a Canadian company is in the United Kingdom to get access to the EU market, that company might also leave in a Brexit.
One prominent Canadian in the middle of all of this is Mark Carney, former Bank of Canada governor and current Bank of England governor. If Brexit happens, Carney will have a lot more work to do with the impact of the Brexit on the value of the pound.
Canada will still trade with the United Kingdom even with a Brexit, but trade will be stronger without a Brexit. The country has ties to the UK through tradition in spirit back to the Dominion days and the shared commonwealth experience, not to mention the Governor General representing the Queen of England.
The status quo is working for Canada, and the country would like that to remain. Canada and the United States are more accepting of immigrants than Europe has traditionally. And as we've seen in both countries, when trade deals don't work well for working class and middle class people, scapegoats abound.
The final reason for the UK to stay in the EU is more symbolic. Canada and the United States would flourish if people could work in each other's country easily. The European Union isn't just about trade or immigration; this is about economic flexibility. Having the UK in the EU inspires hope that economic flexibility can come to North America. The timing is also good with the Three Amigos summit meeting next week in Ottawa.
photo credit: Reuters
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