Rachel Notley and her incumbent NDP in Alberta could have waited out the clock and called an election as late as May 31. Notley called the Alberta election for April 16.
Notley and the New Democratic Party have 52 seats in the 87-seat legislature, down from 54 in the 2015 election. The United Conservative Party, led by former Stephen Harper cabinet member Jason Kenney, has 25 seats, down from the 30 seats (21-Wildrose; 9-Progressive Conservative) in the previous election.
The Alberta Party had 3 seats with Stephen Mandel as its leader. The Liberals (David Khan) and Freedom Conservative Party (Derek Fildebrand) each have a single seat in the Alberta legislature.
Notley could have had several pipelines going to the West Coast or the East Coast and still be in serious danger of losing in 2019. The NDP snapped a nearly 44-year run by the Progressive Conservatives with the win in 2015.
While incumbents don't run again for a variety of reasons, over 20% (11) of the NDP incumbents are not running in 2019.
Then again, there is a cloud over the UCP over allegations that there was calculated coordination between Kenney and a minor candidate to go after Brian Jean (Wildrose) in the leadership campaign in 2017.
There is also the resignation of Caylan Ford, a top UCP candidate, after messages were leaked that Ford had commented on what she saw as a double standard for white supremacist terrorists.
2019 Canadian politics preview
Analyzing NDP win in Alberta: Keystone XL and beyond
Alberta votes for change, NDP, Rachel Notley
When the conservative front was divided between the Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Party, you saw different hues of conservatism. Having them under one large umbrella may make for practical bedfellows, but the contrasts become more apparent.
You also have the contrasts of leadership: Rachel Notley is seen as a strong and trustworthy leader; Jason Kenny is seen as being not a nice or trustworthy person. Alberta voters may indeed vote UCP in this election, but despite Kenney not because of him.
If you are looking for trends, the NDP captured a number of rural seats in 2015 to give them the margin of victory. The party will lose a number of those rural seats but can't really gain too many urban seats that the party doesn't already have.
Rachel Notley is the only female premier in Canada. Notley is the only female head of party in the province.
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We noted that longtime Calgary Flames rinkside host Roger Millions retired in part to run for nomination for the United Conservative Party in the Airdrie-East riding. Millions lost to incumbent MLA Angela Pitt who got 71% of the vote.
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The April 16 election date will be during the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Calgary has clinched a playoff berth while Edmonton has a very outside chance of making the playoffs. Look for a lot of political ads during games, especially playoff games.
We will see whether Calgary will get an off day on that date or whether the CBC will cover that series or what the CBC will do with its coverage choice. We saw CBC dump out of covering the Ontario election last year.
photo credit: CBC Calgary
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