The writ will drop this morning. The 2019 Canada federal election will be underway.
The 2019 Canada federal election cycle is likely to be more mean-spirited and far more boring than the 2015 Canada federal election. You should pay attention anyway.
The 2019 federal election will be on October 21. This will be a 40-day campaign. You might recall that then-PM Stephen Harper gave Canada an extraordinarily long 78 days campaign in 2015.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are running for a second term as the party in power. Trudeau and Elizabeth May (Green) are the only federal party leaders from the 2015 election.
The Liberals currently have 177 seats in the 338-seat Parliament, down from 184 seats in the 2015 election. The Conservatives are at 95 seats, down from 99 in 2015. The NDP have 38 seats, down from 44 in 2015. Bloc Quebecois are steady at 10 seats from 2015 but that took a lot of work and new leadership. The Greens have 3 seats, up from 1 in 2015.
The People's Party (Maxime Bernier) and Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (former New Democrat Erin Weir) each has a single MP. There are 8 independent MPs and 5 vacant seats.
The 2019 election campaign will not be decided by campaign slogans. The parties do have them:
Liberals — Choose Forward.
Conservatives — It's time for you to get ahead.
NDP — In it for you.
Green Party — Not left. Not right. Forward together.
Bloc Quebecois — Le Québec, c'est nous. (Quebec is us.)
People's Party of Canada (aka Maxime Bernier) — Strong and free.
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Andrew Scheer took over as Conservative leader on May 27, 2017. Jagmeet Singh became the NDP leader on October 1, 2017.
Yves-Francois Blanchet has only been the leader of the Bloc Québécois since January 17. Blanchet is running in the Beloeil-Chambly riding. The Bloc Quebecois had a defection under the leadership of Martine Ouellet but those members came back. Bernier became the People’s Party leader on September 14, 2018.
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The debate over debates in 2015 spoke volumes about the leaders. There is slightly less controversy about who is in the debates.
The newly created Leaders Debates Commission organized 2 debates: October 7 (English) and October 10 (French).
The Bloc Quebecois will be at these debates. The People's Party has not qualified at the moment for the official debates.
Looking back at 2015 before the 2019 Canadian election
As we noted on Sunday, there is a debate with the Rogers properties MacLean's and Citytv Thursday night in Toronto. The Munk School of Global Affairs foreign policy debate will be on October 1. The Bloc Quebecois and People's Party are not invited to these debates.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has committed to the Leaders Debates Commission debates and the TVA debate (October 2) but not the MacLean's and Munk debates.
2019 Canadian politics preview
CanadianCrossing.com Canadian politics coverage
Now that the election is underway, the rules change significantly.
We love Elections Canada. We think the United States would greatly benefit from a similar concept. We think Elections Canada got one thing wrong.
The ruling centres on climate change. The People's Party of Canada aka Maxime Bernier thinks "there is no climate change urgency in this country." Bernier tweeted out "CO2 is not pollution. It's what comes out of your mouth when you breathe and what nourishes plants."
If Bernier were back with the Conservatives as a backbencher, this wouldn't be an issue. Bernier is the leader of a party of one, so this is an issue. Elections Canada said running ads on the dangers of climate change could be deemed partisan activity since they go against the beliefs of a party. Then that group would have to register with Elections Canada, provided there are "activities or ads that specifically identify a candidate or party" with a cost of $500+.
Environmental groups are worried about the term "partisan" since that could jeopardize their charitable status. The Harper Government targeted Canadian environmental groups in 2012 in a witch hunt claiming they were abusing their tax status with "partisan" activities. You can forgive those environmental groups if they are a bit jumpy.
Enforcement will be based on reporting to Elections Canada.
If you followed the 2015 campaign, we featured weekly notebooks full of fascinating information about the electoral process. The 2019 notebooks will run on Sundays because, quite frankly, the weeks will be quite busy with the rest of Canada.
photo credit: here
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