We talk about scheduled provincial elections in Canada since elections can spring up, especially from a minority government. Canada has several of them now, including the federal government. If we thought one might break, well, New Brunswick wasn't at the bottom of the list.
New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs (Progressive Conservative) is calling an election for September 14.
Premier Higgs proposed that his government stay in power until October 2022 or until the end of the pandemic. The Liberal opposition pulled out of the negotiations. The other 3 parties asked Higgs not to call an election during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.
Saskatchewan has been preparing for months for its scheduled election on October 26. Leadership races in Newfoundland and Labrador as well as Nova Scotia (and the federal Conservatives) have fewer safety issues than a provincial election. New Brunswick will have slightly less than a month.
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Higgs (above) and the Progressive Conservatives have 20 seats, down from 22 at the 2018 election. Kevin Vickers is the new Liberal Party leader since April 24, 2019. The Liberals also have 20 seats in the assembly. David Coon (Green Party) and Kris Austin (People's Alliance) may be on opposite extremes yet each have 3 seats. There is an independent (Robert Gauvin, a former PC member) and 2 vacant seats. 25 of the 49 seats are needed for a majority.
The NDP is active in New Brunswick but has no seats in the assembly. Mackenzie Thomason was just 21 when he took over as interim leader for Jennifer McKenzie, who was the leader in the 2018 election.
Gauvin, the MLA who became an independent, left the PCs over hospital closures in the province. The intriguing element of Higgs calling the election is he could have held onto power for a few months but gambled to do an election now.
New Brunswick is in its first minority government since 1920. No premier has won re-election since Bernard Lord in 2003.
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New Brunswick has done relatively well with COVID-19. The biggest story from the province was about Dr. Jean Robert Ngola, suspected of triggering an outbreak in northern New Brunswick after traveling from Campbellton to Quebec to pick up his 4-year-old daughter.
The province reported no new cases of COVID-19 yesterday. New Brunswick has 15 active cases: 12 in the Moncton region and 3 in the Fredericton region.
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Saskatchewan's progress on tools to help run the election might inspire New Brunswick in its efforts to run the election. Most of the province is rural and very spread out. We are keen to learn any procedures that New Brunswick might use in an election in a pandemic as well as issues the province experiences, especially without being able to plan for this before the writ was dropped.
Canvassing door to door is how a lot of how candidates talk to the voters. Most of that is out the window. As we noted in the past, English language newspaper coverage is a virtual monopoly in New Brunswick. TV stations are limited in English and French: most signals are satellite versions of other stations. CBC Radio and Radio-Canada are quite helpful.
Higgs didn't seem to know yesterday about how an election could be stopped if COVID-19 cases got worse during the election.
Politics aside, can't imagine an election would go well for a party that forces an election during a pandemic. We will find out on September 14 how the people of New Brunswick feel about the matter.
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British Columbia has had a minority government since 2017. New Brunswick got a minority government in 2018. Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and the federal government joined the club in 2019. Nova Scotia as well as Newfoundland and Labrador are dealing with leadership transitions.
Minority governments are traditionally unstable. We had hope that some of them would last the 4 years. New Brunswick might have done so as well but COVID-19 pressures do make a difference. If the PCs lose, other governments might not be as likely to call a snap election in a pandemic.
photo credit: CBC New Brunswick
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