We started 2020 with 4 provincial governments and the federal government as a minority government. The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic was a factor in reducing the provincial number to 2. British Columbia (2017) and New Brunswick (2018) went from a minority government to a majority government.
The pundits desperately wanted the federal government to have an election during the pandemic; cooler heads prevailed. Newfoundland and Labrador (2019) triggered a 2021 election with a leadership change.
Andrew Furey has been the Newfoundland and Labrador premier since August 19. Furey took over for Dwight Ball, who resigned as Liberal Party leader and Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador. The province is required to have an election within a year of a new premier so Newfoundland and Labrador will have a 2021 election. Imagine if Saskatchewan had such a rule.
The Progressive Conservatives in Prince Edward Island (2019) won a by-election in November, giving the party a razor-thin majority government. Justin Trudeau and the federal government (2019) should retain its minority status but COVID-19 overwhelms any sense of normalcy. The sharp increase in COVID-19 numbers could put a hold on sudden elections.
Saskatchewan (2016) could have had an election long before 2020. Premier Scott Moe waited as long as he could to finally be elected rather than appointed.
The provinces have generally gone to a 4-year pattern. Nova Scotia doesn't have a set pattern. The province will have to call an election by 2022 since 5 years is the maximum for any province.
Nova Scotia might have a 2021 election. Nova Scotia Premier Stephen McNeil announced on August 6 that he would step down as premier and Liberal Party leader. The Liberal Party leadership race will conclude on February 6. Labi Kousoulis, Iain Rankin, and Randy Delorey: one of them will be the next Nova Scotia premier.
McNeil has been premier since 2013 and has led the party since 2007.
What did we learn from pandemic elections in Canada?
Saskatchewan Party wins a fourth straight majority government
British Columbia looks like a NDP majority government
British Columbia Saturday, Saskatchewan on Monday: Election results likely to be delayed
Blaine Higgs wins a majority government for Progressive Conservatives in New Brunswick
The Green Party of Canada elected Annamie Paul to ultimately replace Elizabeth May as the second permanent leader of the party. May remains as the party's parliamentary leader in the House since Paul lost the race in the Toronto Centre by-election to get into Parliament. Jo-Ann Roberts was the interim leader.
Paul, who is Black and Jewish, is the first Black permanent leader of a major federal party. She is only the second Jewish person in that role; former NDP leader David Lewis also had that role.
The Green Party election results went pretty smooth compared to the hours and hours of delays with the Conservative Party election results. The race seemed to be headed toward Peter MacKay but Erin O'Toole got enough second-place votes from supporters of Leslyn Lewis and Derek Sloan.
O'Toole replaced Andrew Scheer as party leader; Scheer stayed on until the election. There was enough mendacity that replacing Scheer made a lot of sense.
Unlike Paul, O'Toole already has a seat in Parliament (Durham in Ontario). O'Toole served in the cabinet in the Veteran Affairs post under Stephen Harper.
Annamie Paul is the new Green Party leader in Canada
Erin O'Toole wants to do significant damage to CBC Television and CBC News Network
Erin O'Toole to replace Andrew Scheer as Conservative Party leader
You can pencil in Nova Scotia for a possible 2021 election. Prince Edward Island might roll the dice to have a pandemic election. The Ontario and Quebec governments will go the whole 4 years.
As we learned in 2020, this is subject to change. Here are the tentative election dates for the provinces in 2021:
- Newfoundland and Labrador — before August 19
Here is the list of the provinces and the year of their last provincial election.
British Columbia — 2020
New Brunswick — 2020
Saskatchewan — 2020
Alberta — 2019
Manitoba — 2019
Newfoundland and Labrador — 2019
Prince Edward Island — 2019
Quebec — 2018
Ontario — 2018
Nova Scotia — 2017
2020 Canadian politics preview
2019 Canadian politics preview
2018 Canadian politics preview
2017 Canadian politics preview
2016 Canadian politics preview
2015 Canadian politics preview
Andrea Horwath (Ontario) and Rachel Notley (Alberta) are the only female opposition leaders in the Canadian provinces. Sonia Furstenau became the Green Party leader in British Columbia in September. The Green Party lost its influence in the province after John Horgan and the NDP won a majority government. The Liberal Party leader role in BC is up for grabs after the election; the last female leader of the party has been the province's second female premier (Christy Clark).
Manon Massé (Québec solidaire) and Alison Coffin (Newfoundland and Labrador New Democratic Party) are the only other female leaders of a provincial party with legislative members.
Annamie Paul is the new federal leader of the Green Party.
Canadian politics coverage on CanadianCrossing.com
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has dealt with a closed border with the United States for most of 2020. The U.S. will have a new president in Joe Biden as of January 20. Hopefully, there will be a permanent U.S. Ambassador to Canada sooner rather than later.
That will make a great difference in the Canada-U.S. relationship. Hopefully, that will make for a few stories where no one has to pull out one's hair to read.
photo credit: Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press via AP
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