2021 showed us that Canadian elections early in a pandemic are a different beast than elections later in a pandemic.
We started 2021 knowing 3 provinces had run pandemic elections pretty well. That was an encouraging sign in Newfoundland and Labrador and later Nova Scotia for the party in power.
The Newfoundland and Labrador election started well and ran smoothly until the last week when COVID-19 fired up in the Avalon Peninsula. The simple solution seemed to be have everyone vote on Election Day but those in the Avalon Peninsula. The province halted the vote for everyone and switched to a mail-in format.
That went particularly poorly in Labrador, especially for those who had to learn more English to participate. Andrew Furey (Liberal) won a slim majority government after taking over for Dwight Ball. Furey would have done better if the election had been on time.
The Liberals in Nova Scotia suffered a worse fate being tossed out for the Progressive Conservatives in August. Nova Scotia Premier Iain Rankin, who took office back in February, ran a poor campaign. Tim Houston ran a better campaign.
Andrew Furey, Liberals get slim majority government in Newfoundland and Labrador
Nova Scotia goes Progressive Conservative for the first time since 2009
Heather Stefanson will be Manitoba's first female premier
Manitoba went a year early in 2019; the Progressive Conservatives ultimately voted for Heather Stefanson as the new premier. Former Conservative MP Shelly Glover did not concede gracefully.
Justin Trudeau, Liberals win a third government with back-to-back minority governments
The federal election that the pundits desperately wanted became the election nobody wanted once the campaign started. An odd Willy Wonka ad, only having 3 debates, a Green Party leader who barely traveled, and guns in the campaign were the highlights or lowlights. Justin Trudeau ended up with a similarly strong minority government.
The excitement in most provincial elections are limited to that province. The Ontario and Quebec elections will seem louder than the others. The power base living in Toronto and Ottawa as well as those in Windsor, Sudbury, and Thunder Bay are affected by what happens in Queen's Park.
CanadianCrossing.com Ontario coverage
CanadianCrossing.com Quebec coverage
On paper, Doug Ford would seem to go down easily as a 1-term leader for the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario. A few factors to consider: voting against someone is easy but the question is where those votes will go. The NDP is in opposition with the long-time leader Andrea Horvath.
The PCs will bring up Bob Rae and the 1990 election (NDP). The NDP could bring up Mike Harris but smartly won't. There is plenty of ammunition in what Ford has done and not done as premier.
The Liberals were reduced to third party status at Queen's Park with new leader Steven Del Duca. If the NDP win a minority government, the Liberals could make the difference. Would progressive voters pick red over orange?
The Quebec election will be more difficult to measure since the relative Coalition Avenir Québec popularity. Predicting is always difficult, especially in La Belle Province.
What did we learn from pandemic elections in Canada?
Amita Kuttner is the new interim Green Party Leader, replacing Annamie Paul. Kuttner runs the Moonlight Institute, a non-profit that deals with climate crisis solutions.
So much went wrong for Paul and the Green Party. No one apologized for the anti-Semitic accusations from Paul's senior adviser Noah Zatzman against NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Green MPs. The loss of Jenica Atwin before the election and Paul Manly's loss at the election did a lot of damage to the Green Party.
There were high hopes for the Green Party of Canada when Annamie Paul was elected by party members. The stubbornness to run in Toronto Centre, the reluctance to travel to key ridings: these were some of the downfall for Paul as leader of the Greens.
Paul, who is Black and Jewish, was the first Black permanent leader of a major federal party. She was only the second Jewish person in that role; former NDP leader David Lewis also had that role.
The Conservative Party decided to keep Erin O'Toole. This puts him a step ahead of Andrew Scheer, who did not stay around as party leader. Scheer is still an American citizen, a secret we discovered in the 2019 election.
Ontario and Quebec are up to the plate in 2022.
Here are the tentative election dates for the provinces in 2022:
- Ontario — June 2
- Quebec — October 3
Here is the list of the provinces and the year of their last provincial election.
Newfoundland and Labrador — 2021
Nova Scotia — 2021
British Columbia — 2020
New Brunswick — 2020
Saskatchewan — 2020
Alberta — 2019
Manitoba — 2019
Prince Edward Island — 2019
Quebec — 2018
Ontario — 2018
2021 Canadian politics preview
2020 Canadian politics preview
2019 Canadian politics preview
2018 Canadian politics preview
2017 Canadian politics preview
2016 Canadian politics preview
2015 Canadian politics preview
We now have 3 women in the opposition leader role in the Canadian provinces: Andrea Horwath (Ontario), Rachel Notley (Alberta), and now Dominique Anglade (Quebec). Anglade, former deputy premier of Quebec (Liberal), has been in that role since May 11. She represents the Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne riding.
Manitoba has its first female premier: Former PC cabinet minister Heather Stefanson defeated former Conservative MP Shelly Glover.
Sonia Furstenau (British Columbia Green Party), Manon Massé (Québec solidaire), and Alison Coffin (Newfoundland and Labrador New Democratic Party) are female leaders of a provincial party with legislative members. Coffin lost her seat in the St. John's East-Quidi Vidi riding in 2021.
Amita Kuttner, the new interim Green Party Leader, identifies as transgender, non-binary, and pansexual, using they/them and he/him pronouns. Kuttner are the first transgender person and first of East Asian descent to lead a federal party in Canada.
Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig finally on their way home
Canadian politics coverage on CanadianCrossing.com
Having Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig on Canadian soil was the biggest story of them all.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and U.S. President Joe Biden will be busy with getting the border to be truly open in 2022. At least there is a permanent U.S. Ambassador to Canada in David L. Cohen.
That makes a great difference in the Canada-U.S. relationship.
photo credit: CBC News
video credit: This Hour Has 22 Minutes/CBC
Comments