The dynamic in the 2022 Ontario election is that Doug Ford should be "one and done." That is the easy part of politics: knowing who not to vote for in an election. The hard part for Ontarians in 2022 is picking which party will then govern in Queen's Park.
CBC News reported that Elections Ontario will post a notice of an election this morning at 11:30 am.
The number of seats has not changed in Ontario: 124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario and 63 seats for a majority.
The Progressive Conservatives (Ford) control 67 seats, down from 76 in the 2018 election. The New Democratic Party (Andrea Horwath) has 38 seats, down from 40 at the last election. The Liberals (Steven Del Duca) have 7 seats with no change since the last election.
Mike Schreiner (below) is the head of the Green Party and holds a seat in the legislature.
There are 2 right-wing parties that have split off from the PCs, each with a seat in Queen's Park. The New Blue Party of Ontario has Jim Karahalios as the leader running for a seat. The party's only seat is held by Belinda Karahalios, wife of Jim. (We've seen married couples represent different ridings in Canadian politics: e.g., Jack Layton and Olivia Chow.) Former MP Derek Sloan, who ran for the Conservative Party leadership in 2020, is the leader of the Ontario Party. Rick Nicholls has the only seat for the party in the Legislative Assembly.
There are 5 independent MPPs and 4 vacant seats.
In an era where the opposition leader in running in the initial election, Andrea Howarth has tremendous experience. Howarth has been the NDP leader since 2009, before most of Ontario, Canada, and the world had heard of Rob Ford or Doug Ford. She has been the opposition leader for the last 4 years. Ontario voters have a real good idea as to what Howarth would do if she were in charge at Queen's Park.
The party last won power in Ontario in 1990 under Bob Rae (now with the Liberals).
Steven Del Duca is the Liberal party leader since March 7, 2020. Del Duca served in the assembly from 2012-2018 and was in cabinet from 2014-2018 as transportation minister and then as economic development minister. Del Duca does not have a seat in the assembly.
The Liberals have had third party status at times in Ontario politics; the last election where that happened was 1975. The 2018 election was the first time the Liberals had no party status (not enough MPPs) in Queen's Park.
The Progressive Conservatives had 40.5% of the vote in 2018 versus the NDP's tally of 33.56% of the vote. Yet the PCs (76) got almost twice as many seats as the NDP (40).
We wouldn't begin to tell anyone which way Ontario voters should go. If they don't want Doug Ford, they have to figure out whether the Liberals bounce back in charge, the NDP gets a shot, or a minority government of some kind. Unless voters go wild for the Greens and Mike Schreiner becomes the next premier.
Doug Ford will be the new premier of Ontario
2018 Ontario election preview
Howarth is one of 3 women in the opposition leader role in the Canadian provinces along with Rachel Notley (Alberta) and Dominique Anglade (Quebec). Notley was the last female premier among the provinces before Heather Stefanson took over as Manitoba premier in 2021.
Howarth would be the second premier in Ontario. Kathleen Wynne, the incumbent in the 2018 election, was the first female premier in the province.
There are quite a few incumbents not running for re-election, as in most elections. We can't help but notice that Christine Elliott is not running for re-election.
Elliott has been the deputy premier and minister of health since 2018 with long-term care added to her portfolio (2018-2019). She was the runner-up in the 2015 and 2018 PC party leadership runs and placed third in 2009. The odd scoring system was the difference in Elliott not being premier in 2018. Would have been intriguing to have Howarth, Wynne, and Elliott on a debate stage.
Any minister of health in the last few years has had a rough road, especially with how poorly COVID-19 management happened in Ontario (likely more Ford than Elliott).
We would not begin to speculate as to Elliott's motivation for multiple reasons. This is a seismic move in this 2022 election.
2022 Canadian politics preview
This is the part where we would talk about the upcoming issues for the election. The PCs were criticized for cutting back on long-term care before the COVID-19 pandemic. Sitting on money that needed to be dished out for help during the pandemic. The long delays before help would come on multiple occasions during the pandemic.;
Public transportation stalls in Toronto and a troublesome light-rail setup in Ottawa. Then there is the housing crisis (not just Toronto), placement of highways, PSW wages, wages in general, the auto industry troubles in southwest Ontario, food insecurity, guns (mostly Toronto), and a cast of other issues.
The NDP released its platform.
Canadian politics coverage on CanadianCrossing.com
Wag The Doug podcast is a fine resource for nuanced coverage of the Ontario election. Allison Smith (Queen's Park Today publisher) and Jonathan Goldsbie (Canadaland news editor) crawl into the weeds of the Ontario government. They do get a little wonky though you generally can't find what they do almost anywhere else. The conversation flows well, even if wonky is not your thing.
As you might have guessed, Wag The Doug is part of the Canadaland podcasts stable.
The podcast is normally once a month but will run weekly on Fridays during the campaign as well as the day after the election.
TVO aka TV Ontario is also a good resource for those who live in Ontario.
When we refer to Queen's Park, that is the section of Toronto where the legislative assembly meets. The provincial capital is Toronto and the area is referred to as Queen's Park.
CanadianCrossing.com Ontario coverage
We understand the comments from readers as to why we spend more time and effort covering Ontario than any other province. To be fair (Letterkenny shout out), we do an extensive job covering other provinces and we are proud of that work.
Ontario is most important because of its economy, climate change after gutting the best system in North America shortly after Ford getting into office in 2018, the idea of electing a government you would trust in a pandemic. On a personal, selfish note, I have more Canadian friends in Ontario than any other province. Many of them live in Toronto who saw their democratic rights diminished by cutting the wards in half during a municipal election.
If you live in Ontario, you can learn more about voting and other information you need through Elections Ontario.
We will try and cover this race more like our federal coverage, possibly with weekly notebook updates starting May 15.
map credit: Google
photo credits: individual parties
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