The pundits were correct and then some. Even CBC News called the Ontario race for Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives 19 minutes after the polls officially closed, though a number of ridings had polling issues.
The Progressive Conservatives (Ford) finished unofficially with 83 seats in the 124-member legislature in Queen's Park with 40.84% of the vote (more on that later). The party won 76 seats in 2018 and were at 67 seats when the writ dropped.
Andrea Horwath, in what will be her fourth and final election as NDP leader, guided the party to 31 seats and 23.72% of the vote. The NDP won 40 seats in 2018 and had 38 seats when the campaign started.
Steven Del Duca will be one and done as Liberal leader. The party won 8 seats with 23.85% of the vote as opposed to 7 in 2018. Once again, the party does not have enough seats (12) for official party status.
Mike Schreiner (Guelph) won his seat, becoming the only Green Party MPP in Ontario to win a second term in the legislature.
There was also an Independent winner who is conservative.
Ontario NDP, Liberals celebrate defeating each other #onpoli #OntarioElection
— The Beaverton (@TheBeaverton) June 3, 2022
While The Beaverton is like The Onion in Canada, this is a ring of truth in this tweet. Fighting more with each other as opposed to the party in power was a terrible mistake by both parties.
Andrea Horwath was a rarity in Canadian politics. Horwath has been the New Democratic Party leader since March 7, 2009. Being a female leader for that long. The 2018 election brought the best output for the NDP in Ontario since the 1990 election where the party formed government.
Horwath gave a beautiful speech in which she announced to voters that she will resign as party leader. Horwath will stay on as party leader and opposition leader until that decision has been made.
Her speech was filled with great thoughts on concerns Ontario residents are grappling with these days. She spoke of the PC plan for "big highways to big houses that no one can afford."
Mike Crawley, provincial affairs reporter in Ontario for CBC News, said this was the best speech she's ever given. This was a great speech. Her speech was a sharp contrast to Ford's speech (more on that later).
This was Horwath's fourth election as NDP leader. Not a fair comparison, but Jack Layton finally became the federal opposition leader in his fourth election just before his tragic death.
Steven Del Duca announced in his speech that he will step down as Liberal leader. The party won 8 seats in 1951 but were still the opposition. Having 2 straight elections without official party status is the worst showing for the Liberals in the history of Ontario.
Say what you will about Doug Ford but the few Ontarians who voted were not impressed by the NDP and Liberal campaigns. The other 2 parties were not that loud about why Ford shouldn't be premier.
2022 Ontario election notebook: Why the election has been so meh
This might seem like sour grapes but read a bit deeper. Doug Ford insisted on having notes for the second debate (the not northern Ontario debate) and read from those notes. Ford had a teleprompter for his victory speech last night. I've watched a lot of victory and concession speeches in Canada, more than most Canadians.
Your humble narrator has never seen that in an election speech. We've seen some awkward speeches, some even angry. All of them off the cuff with no help or teleprompters.
Not a fan of Ford, in case you were wondering, but he isn't dumb. Ford can deliver remarks without help or assistance. You might understand it during a campaign where you don't want your leader to make a mistake. A victory speech is a different ballgame.
Andrea Horwath gave a wonderful speech last night. Ford had trouble reading a speech off a teleprompter. If this is a political move, Ford is being advised poorly. The concern is that there is something wrong with Ford physically.
Not sour grapes. If something is wrong with Ford, the voters of Ontario should know. We hope we are wrong but the behavior is highly suspicious.
Our Doug Ford Ontario coverage since 2018
Canadians have talked about changing the "first past the post" voting system. The PCs benefit when the NDP and Liberals draw about the same percentage of the voter turnout.
The PCs didn't draw a majority of the overall vote, which is not a surprise, even in a dominant performance. The NDP and Liberals drew about 60% of what the PCs drew. In other words, the 2 parties combined would have more votes in a riding than the PC candidate.
We talked about how Ontario voters had to decide which other party would be the dominant non-PC party. The NDP did well in its traditional areas, such as northern Ontario and the southwest areas of the province. The Liberals struggled in ridings the party easily won in 2014.
The NDP lost some key ridings in southwest Ontario. While the party retained Windsor West, the PCs won Windsor-Tecumseh and Essex. Essex was a PC win for the first time in 6 decades.
Windsor Mayor Drew Dilkens surprisingly endorsed Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives during the campaign. Dilkens was concerned about having regional representation that would "actually have seats and voices around the government table." Mayors traditionally are neutral for very good reasons.
The PCs won the riding in Timmins in northeastern Ontario after the NDP held the seat for 32 years.
Doug Ford should learn that francophones are Ontarians and Canadians
We criticized Doug Ford heavily for not saying a single word in French in his victory speech in 2018. To no one's sad surprise, Ford didn't say a single word in French in his 2022 victory speech. Horvath and Schreiner didn't include that much French but they make an effort.
Del Duca also didn't speak any French.
Ford talked about unity and everyone was invited to join the party. Perhaps Francophones were excluded from the invitation.
Ontario is not a bilingual province but there are pockets of French speakers in the province. If you watched Shoresy on Crave (or Hulu in the United States), you would know Sudbury has a Francophone presence. Alex Trebek, were he still alive, could also speak on the matter.
Jared Keeso is light years ahead of Doug Ford.
2022 Ontario election preview
2022 Canadian politics preview
The Liberals had an impressive run being in power in Ontario from 2003-2018. The party also had power from 1985-1990. This has been the exception in Ontario since the end of World War II.
The NDP was in charge from 1990-1995. Otherwise, the Progressive Conservatives have been in charge. The PCs had a reign of power from 1943-1985 as well as the mostly Mike Harris era of 1995-2003.
The PCs of that era were definitely not like the Doug Ford era.
NEW - campaign sources tell me they’re expecting voter turnout of around 45% #ONelxn22
— Richard Southern (@RichardCityNews) June 3, 2022
We haven't come close to finding a voter turnout number. Citytv reported a possible voter turnout of 45%. This is a sharp contrast to a 57% turnout in 2018, 52% in 2014, and 48% in 2011. Even with a lot on the line, enthusiasm was not high for voters.
Based from 98.98% of the polls, Elections Ontario indicated only 4.6 million out of 10.7 million eligible voters cast a ballot, around 43%. That would be the lowest turnout in Ontario election history.
There was a sense that the Progressive Conservatives dominated the news coverage and the advertising landscape. Even if you are PC person, that sensibility isn't good for a competitive democracy.
Canadian politics coverage on CanadianCrossing.com
CanadianCrossing.com Ontario coverage
Andrea Horwath has always been on our list of tracking female party leaders in Canada since we've been tracking them. Horwath was 1 of 3 women who were opposition leaders in Canada. Rachel Notley (NDP) serves in that role in Alberta and is a former premier.
Dominique Anglade (Liberal) is the newest female opposition leader. Anglade ascended to the role in May 11, 2020. Quebec's election will be this fall.
We will be curious if either the NDP or Liberals pick someone other than a man to lead their parties. Kathleen Wynne is the only female premier Ontario has ever had.
Christine Elliott, the minister of health under Doug Ford and oh so close almost party leader, could have been the first PC female premier but chose not to run in the 2022 election.
photo credit: CBC News
Twitter captures: @TheBeaverton; @RichardCityNews
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