The Alberta election has a very different dynamic than what we've seen in recent provincial elections in Canada. This is a 2-party race: United Conservative Party and New Democratic Party. The race is between 2 women to be premier, though not the first time Alberta has had 2 women running to be premier. The current premier has never been elected to be premier while the other woman was elected premier 4 years ago.
Danielle Smith, then in charge of the Wildrose Party, ran in the 2012 election against Alison Redford, who was then the unelected premier of Alberta and head of the Progressive Conservatives. Smith should have coasted to a win but that didn't happen.
Now Smith is the unelected incumbent against Rachel Notley, who was premier from 2015-2019, snapping the Progressive Conservatives streak.
Welcome to the real Battle of Alberta.
There are 87 seats in the Alberta legislative assembly. The United Conservative Party has 60 seats at the dissolution of the assembly, down from 63 seats in the 2019 election. The New Democratic Party have 23 seats, down from 24 in the 2019 election.
There is an Alberta Party, Wildrose Independence, and the Liberal Party. They may disrupt a close race in some ridings but are not likely to break through. The Liberals had 1 MLA in 2015 and 5 MLAs in 2012.
The NDP will do well in Edmonton. Many rural ridings will stay UCP despite the last 4 years. The parties will do a lot of campaigning for Calgary area ridings.
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Edmonton didn't get provincial help for Rogers Place. Danielle Smith and the UCP made a tentative deal to help give provincial help to a Saddledome replacement in Calgary. The catch: the UCP has to be re-elected into power.
The NDP says the issue need study. The funding fell in great part due to increased costs in building the new arena and surrounding area.
The NDP only had 3 of 26 seats in Calgary going into the election. The party dominates (19 of 20) seats in Edmonton.
There are differing opinions about whether funding for a new Calgary arena will be crucial in the election or may not amount to much in the election.
Being right isn't as important isn't as significant as being popular enough to win Calgary ridings on May 29.
Quite frankly, there should be a mature approach for all levels to get a new arena and football stadium in Calgary. The 2026 Winter Olympics would have been a good push for both but voters (the ones that voted) crushed that dream.
Let’s keep moving forward! 💙#ableg #abvotehttps://t.co/yOvTvDNUyt
— UCP War Room (@UCPWarRoom) April 30, 2023
The Canadian politics strategy in an election loss is to give consternation to whether the party leader should stay. The NDP in Alberta smartly went: "We have a great leader in Rachel Notley. We should hang on to her."
The circumstances were different. The union of the Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Party was a dominant force. No matter how well the NDP did in Alberta in 4 years, the momentum was to go back to where things were.
Jason Kenney spent taxpayer money on a propaganda machine. Kenney picked fights with doctors during a pandemic. Countless violations of pandemic protocols by the government. The steamrolling of the original UCP leadership race.
Smith running for UCP leadership on the Alberta Sovereignty Act, yet the teeth on that legislation aren't as sharp as feared.
Smith is being investigated by the province’s ethics commissioner, a definite campaign issue. She also pulled a page from the Stephen Harper 2015 playbook and limited questions from journalists, especially follow-up questions of any kind.
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"Let me begin by saying to every girl and every young woman watching tonight: I believe in you and never stop believing in yourself. I hope that we have shown you that in your life, anything is possible. Sometimes it can feel like you take two steps forward and then one step back. But may you never ever stop taking those steps forward." — Alberta Premier Rachel Notley in her concession speech on Tuesday.
2019 brought an end to the final of 5 then premiers in Canada for parts of 2013 and 2014. Canada currently has 2 female premiers, though neither of them elected: Smith and Heather Stefanson (Manitoba). That province is scheduled for an October 2023 election. After this Alberta election, one of the 2 female premiers will be elected.
The Alberta NDP has a plan to take pressure off overburdened family doctors and make sure Albertans can get the care they need.
— Alberta's NDP (@albertaNDP) May 1, 2023
Learn more here: https://t.co/p0uVcfenoY
Health care will be a significant issue. The Kenney Government seemed intent on running doctors out of Alberta during the height of the pandemic.
The curiosity in 2015 was whether the NDP could get voters on the fence to vote orange. The idea of that 8 years later seems less surprising.
As Edmonton radio anchor and reporter David Boles noted, Smith is Alberta's 8th premier since 2006. The only one to serve a full term was Rachel Notley.
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The Edmonton Oilers, not the Calgary Flames, are the Alberta team in the chase for the Stanley Cup. Voters might want to get their votes in early in case an Oilers playoff game is scheduled for May 29.
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Democracy itself is on the ballot in Alberta's upcoming election.#ableg #abpoli #yyc https://t.co/xz4VctOrtU
— Thomas A. Lukaszuk (@LukaszukAB) May 1, 2023
Alberta goes back to its conservative ways by electing the UCP
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Alberta Election callout for writers
— CBC Edmonton (@CBCEdmonton) January 17, 2023
CBC is accepting pitches for a special opinion project leading up to the spring election. This is a paid writing opportunity open to all Albertans.
Know someone who'd be perfect? Share this with them.
Details at https://t.co/yQB8xzVMic pic.twitter.com/xS6k4ehPnP
We reserve the right to write more about this election between now and May 29, like we did for the Ontario election in 2022. That depends on what happens and our anxieties. Will be curious how this CBC News project turns out for Albertans.
Those in Alberta can get information on how to vote in the May 29 election via Elections Alberta.
video and photo credit: About That/CBC News Explore
Twitter captures: @UCPWarRoom; @albertaNDP; @LukaszukAB; @CBCEdmonton
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