I’m calling on leaders across party lines to denounce the misinformation spreading through mailboxes and social media across our province. New Brunswickers deserve leadership they can trust. pic.twitter.com/l4NE1QjmFo
— Susan Holt (@susanholt) September 14, 2024
The British Columbia election next month may get more headlines but don't sleep on the upcoming New Brunswick provincial election. The writ dropped last Thursday for the election coming up on October 21.
Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs resisted the temptation to call an early election. Policy 713, which now requires parental consent before teachers can use a chosen pronoun requested by a child under 16, is definitely on the ballot.
The population surge, especially in the largest cities, is an intriguing factor. One estimate is that on average, 1,600 new residents have been added per riding in 13 ridings in the 4 largest cities. Moncton, Saint John, and Fredericton (provincial capital) are the major 3 cities in order of population. Dieppe, just east of Moncton, is fourth with about half the population of Fredericton.
There are 49 seats in the New Brunswick Legislative Assembly, 25 seats needed for a majority. The Progressive Conservatives won 27 seats in 2020 and currently have 25 seats. Susan Holt is the opposition leader for the Liberals, winning 17 seats in 2020 and having 16 MLAs at the moment. David Coon is the long-time Green Party leader, since 2012: the party won 3 seats in 2020 and keeps that total. The right-wing Party People's Alliance under Rick DeSaulniers won 2 seats in 2020 and currently has 0 MLAs. There is an Independent MLA and 4 vacancies.
The Party People's Alliance has gone through a transformation with Kris Austin and Michelle Conroy leaving the party to join the Progressive Conservatives. The party was deregistered and then re-registered under DeSaulniers in 2022.
Will a population boom blow up New Brunswick politics? (The Current)
Parents worry overcrowded N.B. schools can't meet kids' needs (The Current)
The housing issue in Canada also affects New Brunswick, even without a population boom. Those in Ontario complaining about food prices, as they should, might be shocked at how much food and gas costs in New Brunswick and Atlantic Canada.
Susan Holt has promised a HST cut for electric bills. Blaine Higgs has proposed a 2 point HST cut (currently at 15%). Holt has brought a promise for free school breakfasts in the province, a promise Higgs did not keep in 2020.
Why New Brunswick is mostly absent from Canadian film landscape
Canadian politics notebook: Russell Brown steps down as Supreme Court justice
Blaine Higgs wins a majority government for Progressive Conservatives in New Brunswick
New Brunswick is calling a provincial election in a pandemic
CanadianCrossing.com New Brunswick coverage
As we noted in our British Columbia preview, the provinces with scheduled elections (also Saskatchewan) had pandemic elections in the heart of the pandemic. They were seen more as keep the ship steady. The general thought is that the 2024 elections may be "throw out the baby and the bathwater." The New Brunswick election might have other reasons. The better question is whether the voters know which way will that go.
We would argue that the situation in each province is very different. We watched the Canadian press take an odd interpretation in the 2 recent federal byelections almost as if they wrote the story before the results came out.
Twitter capture: @susanholt
photo credit: New Brunswick
video credit: CPAC
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