Editor's note: We didn't expect things to move this quickly. The Justin Trudeau resignation opens up a Liberal Party leadership race. The Foreign Interference report comes out January 31. Parliament is prorogued until March 24.
We imagine how well the Trudeau Government would have fared without having to fight the orange toddler from 2017-2021 and soon 2025-???. We also imagine what might have happened to Canada under an Andrew Scheer, Erin O'Toole, and Pierre Poilievre government.
Depending on when the 2025 Canada federal election will happen (between now and October 20), we will not be able to put in our usual energy into covering the campaign. I am as disappointed as anyone over this but real life is throwing punches I have to defend.
Parliament returns on January 27, the day after my birthday. We rarely offer political advice but Trudeau should take a page from the Stephen Harper handbook, who used prorogation in 2008 and 2009 to keep minority governments afloat. The Daily Show with Jon Stewart even explored this occurrence.
Harper was in worse shape and somehow didn't politically suffer from taking such action.
We have been absolutely appalled by the push for mainstream Canadian journalism, including CBC News, for Justin Trudeau to resign. Stephen Harper had done way worse in 2015 and there wasn't such a push.
If the U.S. election had gone the other way (and there is concern that it really did), a lot of what happened politically happened in Canada would not have occurred.
Let's start with the huge influx of provincial elections from 2024.
British Columbia might be going back to NDP and the Greens
Liberals win New Brunswick election; Susan Holt to be province's first female premier
Saskatchewan Party makes it 5 majority governments but a smaller majority
Progressive Conservatives get a supermajority in Nova Scotia
Canada only has 10 provinces. Ontario has threatened an early election but that would be this year, not in 2024. The first 3 stories were from provinces that were required to have elections. All of them around the time of the Windsor International Film Festival. Nova Scotia had the gall to call a very unnecessary election during said film festival.
British Columbia is back to somewhat familiar territory in that the difference is close. New Brunswick picked a more rational approach to high school students, abortion, and overall health care. Saskatchewan picked MLAs to keep the mean policy against some high school students but with a small majority. The Progressive Conservatives of Nova Scotia took a light gamble and got a stronger majority.
When 2024 started, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, and Nova Scotia had never elected a female premier. Susan Holt reversed that in New Brunswick. Saskatchewan had a decent chance but fell short. Nova Scotia didn't come close. Alberta, of all place, has 3 elected female premiers.
Reflecting on the complete legacy of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney
Speaking of British Columbia, former premier John Horgan died in November at 65. Horgan served as premier from 2017-2022. He stepped down to focus on his health. Horgan was diagnosed with cancer for the third time this June. He had been serving as Canada's ambassador to Germany.
The other major political death was former Progressive Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney back in February. Though I knew of Pierre Trudeau when I was a child, Brian Mulroney's reign was when I took Canadian politics courses at university.
The fact that some provincial premiers talked about dropping Mexico from a form of NAFTA: Mulroney pushed for free trade between the United States and Canada and that existed years before NAFTA. One of many legacies for Mulroney.
British Columbia fine tunes decriminalizing drug policy
Canada finally takes the leap for a national school lunch program
Everybody says they love democracy. Unfortunately, more progressive policies are subject to harsher criticism when elections are coming up. British Columbia made significant changes under the pressure of the 2024 provincial election. The school lunch program will be in great danger if the federal house shifts to the opposition party.
Some elements of government should have more freedom to pursue needed improvement without the threat of a hostile takeover.
Canadian politics notebook: Very little of Canada in latest CPC ad
Doug Ford puts beer access in Ontario over more pressing concerns
The attention span of constituents on this continent are legendarily short, especially where conservatives are involved. Hoping the CPC ad from this past summer comes up during the 2025 election cycle. Somehow, that was magically not get mentioned.
The Canadian journalism scene is salivating to get Trudeau out and Poilievre in. They hid this story as well as they could. Some of us were paying attention.
Doug Ford's list of ways to funnel money into the pockets of his friends is longer than Santa's naughty list. Yet Ford skates by with little to no resistance. The threat of an early election in 2025 is a reality: will one of the female party leaders rise up to produce a clear path to a new government at Queen's Park?
Dear Donald, Thanks for including us in your deranged Christmas message. Being Canadian means free health care and limiting access to assault weapons. In your 51st state our kids would get shot at in school and CEOs would be shot for denying health care. So no. Now piss off. Your northern neighbour
— Charlie Angus (@charlieangus104.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 3:55 PM
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Election Day 2024 in the United States: What is on the line for Canada?
We are legitimately frightened for what will happen in the U.S.-Canada relationship as of January 20. The idea of a worse U.S. Ambassador to Canada than Kelly Knight Craft is a disturbing thought. Pete Hoekstra is more encouraging but we are wary for good reason. David L. Cohen hasn't impressed us too much but seems like James Blanchard or Bruce Heyman by comparison compared to Craft.
Our anxieties and depression were exacerbated by covering the monster from 2017-2021. Our coverage can't be as elaborate as what we did before. The Three Amigos concept feels like a pipe dream. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will have his hands full if he had as many hands as the Hindu goddess Durga has. Of course, that relationship could theoretically change in October, or before.
Canadian journalism notebook: Pierre Poilievre overreacting to a CTV News mistake
Pierre Poilievre also wants to defund the CBC
We don't think Poilievre is bluffing, like Scheer or O'Toole might have done. We've seen CBC News capitulate to him. We saw the attack he railed on CTV News. We've seen the disrespect he gives to journalists, especially female journalists. Poilievre is a jerk but hasn't had to pay the price for his behaviour.
CanadianCrossing.com Canadian politics coverage
Here are the tentative election dates for the provinces (and country) in 2025:
- Canada — October 20
- Newfoundland and Labrador — November 24
Here is the list of the provinces and the year of their last provincial election.
Nova Scotia — 2024
British Columbia — 2024
New Brunswick — 2024
Saskatchewan — 2024
Alberta — 2023
Manitoba — 2023
Prince Edward Island — 2023
Ontario — 2022
Quebec — 2022
Newfoundland and Labrador — 2021
We were a bit surprised that each of the 3 scheduled provincial elections in 2024 (British Columbia, New Brunswick, and Saskatchewan) kept their dates so close together. The timing of those elections around the Windsor International Film Festival is awful for your humble narrator. Not looking forward to 2028, especially with Nova Scotia calling a snap election on that trip.
Ontario is a candidate for a snap election in 2025; the province is required to have one by 2026. Of course, there will be a federal election in 2025. We mildly predict that Newfoundland and Labrador will keep on that schedule for a November election.
The Canada Elections Act requires the federal election to be held on the third Monday in October, which is October 20. There is a proposal to delay that call until October 27 to work around Diwali and Alberta municipal elections. There is the very real possibility that Pierre Poilievre can have his dream of an early election.
Fixed election dates are relatively new in Canada. Traditionally, they had to be done within 4 years but not tied to a specific day or date. There will be a federal election in 2025.
2024 Canadian politics preview
2023 Canadian politics preview
2022 Canadian politics preview
2021 Canadian politics preview
2020 Canadian politics preview
2019 Canadian politics preview
2018 Canadian politics preview
Some fun prime minister trivia. Charles Tupper, John Turner, and Kim Campbell were prime ministers to never sit in Parliament while prime minister. Kim Campbell (1947) and Stephen Harper (1959) are the only Baby Boomers to be prime minister. This is a sharp contrast to American federal leadership.
Justin Trudeau (1971) is the first Gen X person to be prime minister. Trudeau turned 53 on Christmas Day. The other major party leaders are also in Gen X: Poilievre (1979), Jagmeet Singh of the NDP (1979) and Yves-François Blanchet of the Bloc Quebecois (1965).
Elizabeth May (1954) of the Green Party is the only Baby Boomer with a shot at the top spot. May would be the second PM to be born outside Canada. John Turner was born in England while May was born in the United States.
2017 Canadian politics preview
2016 Canadian politics preview
2015 Canadian politics preview
Canada is losing female premiers: Politics or sexism?
I write with mixed feelings to announce that today I will be sending a letter to the Speaker of the Alberta Legislative Assembly, advising of my intent to resign my position as the MLA for Edmonton Strathcona, effective December 30, 2024.
— Rachel Notley (@RachelNotley) December 12, 2024
It was last January this year when I… pic.twitter.com/jPRsmTEkRo
We knew Rachel Notley was going to leave the leadership of the NDP in Alberta. Notley was succeeded by former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi. Still sad that Notley left the assembly.
We are mildly curious if Notley will run for federal office in 2025. That is not speculation; just a curious guess.
Canada has 2 female premiers in its provinces: Susan Holt became New Brunswick's first female premier in 2024 and Danielle Smith (Alberta) got elected in 2023.
Carla Beck is the leader of the opposition in Saskatchewan and the NDP leader since 2022. Beck ran a good race in 2024. Claudia Chender is the new opposition leader in Nova Scotia, the first female elected to that post in the province. Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia are the only 2 Canadian provinces to have never had a female premier.
Marit Stiles is the Ontario NDP leader and provincial opposition leader. Bonnie Crombie is the Ontario Liberal Party leader. Stiles and Crombie need to make a distinction to fight back against the damage Doug Ford is doing in Ontario.
Manon Massé (Québec solidaire) is a female leader of a provincial party with legislative members. Sonia Furstenau (British Columbia Green Party) is the leader but lost her seat in the BC election in October.
photo credit: CTV News
BlueSky capture: Charlie Angus
Twitter capture: @RachelNotley
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