Ontario will be the 5th Canadian province (there are only 10 provinces) to go to the provincial polls since October 19 of last year. There are only 2 more provinces — Newfoundland and Labrador (2025) and Quebec (2026) — scheduled to go to the polls before October 4, 2027.
Doug Ford threatened a snap election in Ontario since last fall. The writ is expected to drop today with an election scheduled for February 27. The next election was scheduled for June 4, 2026.
The Progressive Conservatives under Ford have 79 seats, down from 83 in the 2022 election, in the 124-seat legislature in Queen's Park (Toronto). Marit Stiles (New Democratic Party) is the opposition leader with 28 seats, down from 31 in 2022. Bonnie Crombie (Liberal Party) has 9 seats, up from 8 in 2022. The Greens have 2 seats, up from 1 in 2022, including party leader Mike Schreiner. There are 6 independent MPPs in Queen's Park, up from 1 in 2022.
Ford and Schreiner have run elections before as leader; this will be the first election as party leaders for Stiles and Crombie. While Crombie is a former MPP (2008-2011) and recently the mayor of Mississauga (2014-2024), she does not have a seat in Queen's Park.
Another reason @fordnation is pushing for an early election: He has enlisted lawyers to delay disclosing to voters who has personally lobbied him as RCMP investigates his government.
— Jonathan Sher (@SherOnHealth) January 14, 2025
Sharing recipes, Doug, is not enough.
https://t.co/0WgupxOy9M
Tim Houston pushed a similar scenario in the snap election in Nova Scotia, essentially "I have a huge majority. I need a bigger majority. Please give me one." Houston got his wish in Nova Scotia. Ford wants this in Ontario, using the expected federal tariffs scheduled to come on Saturday as an excuse.
The big difference between Nova Scotia and Ontario is the carnage that Ford Nation has inflicted on its residents before the call for more MPPs in the legislature.
For those who might whine that your humble narrator is picking on conservatives, I guarantee that Christine Elliott, who narrowly lost the Ontario PC leadership race in 2018 to Ford, would have made poor choices for Ontarians but with a lot less damage than that inflicted by Ford.
Doug Ford's hat might say "Canada is not for sale" but provincially, Ford clearly is compromised.
Doug Ford has one of the worst negotiating records that I've seen in a Premier. Just look at his Ontario Place deal: Why is every household in the province paying $400 each to subsidize a luxury spa in downtown Toronto? pic.twitter.com/wAMT67Hvt0
— Marit Stiles (@MaritStiles) January 25, 2025
Only 44% of eligible voters participated in the 2022 Ontario election. That number need to significantly change to a much higher turnout. The electorate needs to decide what they think of Marit Stiles and Bonnie Crombie as potential premiers in Canada's most populous province. Sorry, Mike Schreiner, though an election result that resides on the Greens providing the balance of power would make for a fun time in Queen's Park.
Some would argue that Stiles (NDP) and Crombie (Liberals) need to divide up ridings to concentrate resources so there isn't vote splitting in certain ridings where the PCs can win with 35%-40% of the vote. Making that an active exercise will likely backfire but passivity might provide results.
The Liberals have more experience running the province yet the NDP offers a clearer alternative to the reigning government.
We criticized Canadian journalism for its lackadaisical coverage of the 2022 election. Given the cutbacks to Canadian journalism, there is a greater fear of that happening in 2025. No offence to Nova Scotia but there is a lot more riding on the Ontario election.
Here’s my second question to Premier Ford on whether he’s worried of facing the fate of former premier David Peterson in 1990, when he — popular at the time — called an early election and went on to lose decisively. pic.twitter.com/RBcCgE2nfh
— Ahmad Elbayoumi (@ahmadelbayoumi) January 24, 2025
A prominent conservative political strategy is to have so many terrible things happen all at once that you lose track of how horrible things are. In that sense, Doug Ford is a genius.
I do honestly wonder about PC MPPs, the ones who supported Christine Elliott, ones who appreciate competent leadership. Do they roll along with Ford Nation without remorse? Would they rather have conservative leadership without wasting taxpayers money?
2 realities: if more people had paid more attention in 2022, we wouldn't be having this conversation. If Doug Ford gets his super type majority, we will look back on 2025, knowing things got even worse, as if that was possible.
This morning, Ontario’s financial watchdog found that Doug Ford spent $1.9 billion of taxpayers’ money on fast tracking the availability of booze in corner stores.
— Bonnie Crombie 🇨🇦 (@BonnieCrombie) January 27, 2025
That money could’ve been used to hire 1,400 family doctors across this province.
Doug Ford has the wrong… pic.twitter.com/sEfypBWQb1
Doug Ford puts beer access in Ontario over more pressing concerns
Doug Ford and the PCs win a second term in Ontario
2022 Ontario election notebook: Why the election has been so meh
2022 Ontario election preview
Whether it's tunnels under the 401 or spending millions on a spa at Ontario Place it's clear that Ford would rather be the mayor of the GTA than the Premier of the province.
— Mike Schreiner (@MikeSchreiner) January 22, 2025
Our rural communities are facing big challenges: expensive housing, healthcare shortages, and pressures… pic.twitter.com/BPXEqkg1TU
Thoughts on the immediate future of the U.S.-Canada relationship
2025 Canadian politics preview
Election Day 2024 in the United States: What is on the line for Canada?
CanadianCrossing.com trade coverage
CanadianCrossing.com Canadian politics coverage
CanadianCrossing.com Ontario coverage
This Ontario election deserves weekly notebook updates. As we have noted with the upcoming federal election, between March 24 and late October of this year, we will likely not have the focus or energy to provide said weekly notebooks.
We heartily recommend the Wag The Doug podcast via Canadaland with Allison Smith (Queen's Park Today publisher) and Jonathan Goldsbie (Canadaland news editor) as they crawl into the weeds of the Ontario government. There hasn't been an episode since August but there are plenty of episodes to give you some background.
TV Ontario (TVO) is a good resource for those who live in Ontario.
Elections Ontario is a valuable resource for those who live in Ontario on when and how to vote.
Let us know if there are outlets filled with solid independent journalism on the Ontario election that we do not know. To my many friends in Ontario, don't sit on your hands. Let's get a 70%+ turnout at least.
photo credit: APTN News
Twitter captures: @SherOnHealth; @MaritStiles; @ahmadelbayoumi; @BonnieCrombie; @MikeSchreiner
video credit: TVO Today
Comments