Tim Houston and the Progressive Conservatives couldn't have dreamed of a better scenario in calling a snap election in Nova Scotia. The party won re-election last night with 42 ridings (at press time) of the 55-seat legislature in Halifax. That is significantly higher that the 31 seats won in 2021 and 34 seats when the writ was dropped.
Claudia Chender and the New Democratic Party had a good evening, mostly at the expense of the Liberal Party. The NDP went from 6 seats to 9 seats and will form the official opposition. The NDP was in charge of the government from 2009-2013 with Darrell Dexter as premier and in opposition from 2003-2009.
The Liberals won 27 seats in 2017 and formed government. The party had a rough night, going from 17 seats (2021 election) to 14 seats (writ drop) to 3 seats. A party needs 2 seats to be an officially recognized party. Zach Churchill, the Liberal leader, lost his own riding in Yarmouth. "In life, you can lose, and the most important thing is you get back up, and how you get back up," Churchill said in his post-election speech.
Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin made Nova Scotia history being the first MLA to be elected twice as an independent. McCrossin started out with the PCs when first elected in 2007.
The Progressive Conservatives now have a supermajority with more than 37 seats. This will make passing legislation even easier.
Nova Scotia politics are crazy. Provincial liberals used to be a power house and are reduced to rubble. The province also loves to throw out a government, so watch the same thing happen to the PCs next election.
— Eric Bell (@eric_bellMB) November 27, 2024
The trend had theoretically been change. British Columbia still has the NDP but without a significant majority. New Brunswick flipped to the Liberals but mostly due to self-inflicted wounds by then-premier Blaine Higgs.
The NDP made gains in Saskatchewan but not nearly enough to take power. Nova Scotia — despite problems with food costs, health care, housing, and the problems all Canadians have — decided to give the Progressive Conservatives more power.
Ontario is ruminating about a snap election of its own.
4 women, reporting live from NDP HQ for the Nova Scotia election. #vote pic.twitter.com/g79VpxUbxU
— Blair Rhodes (@CBCBlairRhodes) November 26, 2024
Iain Rankin won the Timberlea-Prospect riding for the Liberals last night, 1 of 2-3 Liberals seats in the legislature. Rankin was premier in Nova Scotia from February 23 to August 31 in 2021 and opposition leader from August 31, 2021 until July 9, 2022.
Rankin has been in the Nova Scotia legislature since 2013. Usually, a premier, even one as a caretaker, disappears from the political landscape once out of power. Churchill became Liberal leader in 2022, succeeding Rankin.
Rankin is 41 and still around in Halifax. The party needs a new leader, mostly because Churchill doesn't have a seat. Will be curious as to the direction of the Liberal Party in Nova Scotia.
2024 Nova Scotia election preview
Nova Scotia goes Progressive Conservative for the first time since 2009
CanadianCrossing.com Nova Scotia coverage
Early voting was down compared to 2021. Elections Nova Scotia said 64,000 votes were cast compared to 75,367 at the same point in 2021. The Canada Post strike could be one factor.
2024 Canadian politics preview
CanadianCrossing.com Canadian politics coverage
Snap elections usually work out well for the incumbent government. They do pay a price often in the following election. When we revisit Nova Scotia in 2028, if the opposition parties have strong enough leadership, we will be curious about the new direction in this Atlantic Canada province.
photo credit: CBC News
Twitter captures: @eric_bellMB; @CBCBlairRhodes