The October 20 deadline has been moved up. Welcome to the 2025 Canadian federal election. There are now 343 seats in the House of Commons, up from the previous 338 seats, and 172 seats are needed for a majority government.
The writ has been dropped; Parliament was scheduled to return today. The election will be on April 28.
The Liberals, now under Mark Carney, have 153 seats, down from the 160 seats won in 2021. The Conservatives with Pierre Poilievre at the helm have 120 seats, up slightly from the 119 seats in the 2021 election. Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois have 33 seats, slightly up from the 32 seats in the last election.
Jagmeet Singh, in charge of the New Democratic Party, goes into the election with 24 seats, down slightly from the 25 seats in 2021. The Green Party have an unusual situation in a lot of ways: co-leaders in Elizabeth May and, now back in leadership, Jonathan Pedneault. May has a seat, along with Michael Morrice (Kitchener Centre, ON) in Parliament. Pedneault does not have a seat, is running in the Outremont (QC) riding, and shockingly, will represent the party in leaders' debates.
This may be the only time we mention Maxime Bernier and the People's Party. Bernier lost his seat in the 2019 federal election. They ran in most ridings in 2021 but with no seats. There may be a protest vote in some conservative ridings. The main question may be whether a riding goes away from being conservative if that vote is split.
Blanchet, Singh, and May have run as party leaders in previous campaigns. Blanchet and Singh were leaders in the 2019 and 2021 elections while May was the party leader in 2008, 2011, 2015, and 2019. Carney and Poilievre are both running their first campaign as party leaders.
Within the last 6 months, we have covered elections in Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and Ontario. We have a new premier in Prince Edward Island and a Liberal Party race for the new premier in Newfoundland and Labrador, plus an election in November.
This election is more important than all of these combined. Ontario would have been more relevant if the race had been closer.
The 2021 turnout was 62.6%, the lowest of the 3 Liberal wins, versus 67.0% in 2019 and 68.3% in 2015. The Harper elections were known for dismal turnouts: 2006 at 64.7%, 2008 at 58.8%, and 2011 at 61.1%.
The 2015 election was a turnaround election and the excitement of Justin Trudeau. Carney and Poilievre might not have that kind of pull.
The electoral math hasn't really changed. The more seats Carney can win in Atlantic Canada, the closer he can get to a majority government. Quebec is gigantic for a few purposes:
- Can the Conservatives do well with their best French speaking leader since Mulroney outside of Quebec City?
- Quebec has cost the Liberals a majority government in the last 2 elections. Will the Liberals showing be worse?
- The Bloc Quebecois under Blanchet have taken seats from the Liberals and the NDP? Will that get even stronger?
Ontario comes down to whether the Conservatives can gain strength in the 905 (Toronto suburbs) and rural ridings. These people float between Liberals and Conservatives. Those in the U.S. who thought they were voting on economic issues saw that backfire. That could be a growing concern in the 2025 federal election.
The NDP fell to 4th place beneath the Bloc Quebecois in 2019. They got a lot done with the sharing agreement with the Liberals. Singh threw that out. A voter in a riding, especially Ontario, has a debate between voting with their heart (NDP) and head (Liberals).
Wab Kinew's leadership may help federal seats in Manitoba for a few NDP wins. Saskatchewan and Alberta will mostly go Conservative yet some questions about NDP or Liberals in Edmonton and relatively left of centre ridings.
British Columbia run somewhat conservative well north of Vancouver. Will the rise of the BC Conservative Party help federal candidates out west?
As for the race for the new premier in Newfoundland and Labrador, the deadline for nominations is today and the convention in St. John's to elect the next party leader and next premier on May 2.
Stephen Harper approached CBC cuts by being subtle. Well, except for when he declared his love for American news over Canadian news. Under his leadership, he allowed Americans to own Canadian media, especially the Postmedia newspaper chain.
Andrew Scheer, Erin O'Toole, and Poilievre signaled early that they would defund the CBC, especially on the English language side. Pascale St-Onge, the recent heritage minister, wanted to separate Radio-Canada more from CBC because of that threat.
The media landscape in Canada, frightening as it always is, would get worse under a Conservative Party government. No one thinks Poilievre would go light on his threat to defund the CBC without the subtlety of his former boss (Harper).
Even if you think Poilievre and the Conservatives will win this election, chances are they would win a minority government. Harper has the ability to juggle that in 2006 and 2008, winning a majority in 2011.
Bruce Fanjoy has had some momentum in what might seem an arduous task: win the seat of the Carleton (ON) riding held by Poilievre since 2015.
Poilievre has won the last 3 elections in the newly setup riding since 2015. The left candidates (Liberal, NDP, Green) drew more votes than Poilievre and a People's Party candidate when that was in play in 2015 and 2019. However, Poilievre and the People's Party candidate outdrew everyone on the left in 2021.
The turnout in that riding was 74.57%, meaning 71,320 votes were cast from 95,639 eligible voters. This leaves Fanjoy to go after the other 24,319 voters (subject to changes in the riding).
Chris Rodgers did pretty well for the Liberals in 2015 and 2019 while Gustave Roy didn't do as well in 2021.
Carney grew up in Edmonton yet will run in the Nepean (Ottawa area) riding. He has never been a politician, which could have advantages and disadvantages. In fact, Nepean and Carleton are right next to each other on the riding map.
Chandra Arya has been the MP in Nepean since 2015. Arya submitted a bit for party leadership, even though he didn't speak French. The party halted his leadership bid and, over the weekend, revoked his nomination for the Nepean riding.
Social media had speculated that Carney would run in Edmonton Centre following Randy Boissonnault's sudden departure as the party candidate. Turns out Eleanor Olszewski — chair of the federal Liberal Party in Alberta — will switch from running in Edmonton-Strathcona (a fairly strong NDP riding) to Edmonton Centre.
The Americans reading might get confused but we see Canadian politicians running in ridings nowhere near their home base. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh represents the Burnaby South riding just outside Vancouver yet is from Ontario.
Blanchet and May certainly have issues yet the safety of winning their seats feels fairly secure. Singh should be secure but there is a lot of frustration at what has happened in the last few months. We will see if the current polls stay in that direction through the campaign. Pedneault and Bernier, neither of which is currently a MP, have plenty of concern about winning a seat.
You can keep track of the candidates in the 343 federal ridings (districts in Canadian). There will be plenty of holes to fill, even as the writ has dropped. There is speculation that former CBC and CTV journalist Evan Solomon will run for the Liberals.
The press coverage of Poilievre is generally fawning in part because of how poorly he treats journalists. You might wonder why the Liberals are pounding the point over Poilievre not having a security clearance. Well, the press isn't doing their job. Mark Carney, barely prime minister, has a security clearance. With the largest threat coming south of the border and the strong fear of foreign interference in this federal election, the Liberals, though not Carney, will press this point.
The press will not likely bring up how federal senators get picked, the future of the federal school lunch program, and a host of other issues crucial to Canadians.
The tradition is that party buses have the reporters and those journalism companies pay for the right to travel on those buses. Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are not allowing reporters to travel on those buses for the campaign. While conservative leaders are generally hostile to the press, Poilievre is really good at being hostile to journalists. They react by not asking him difficult questions.
This means more local reporters, who have more pressure on them not to ask tough questions, will dominate the coverage of the campaign. This may seem subtle but this does matter to journalism and politics.
Rosemary Barton of CBC News has run into controversy for flat out accusing Mark Carney of lying. Poilievre lies to her and others all the time and she never reacts to the Conservatives that way.
Canadian elections aren't run to the demands of one party leader, unlike the United States. The eligibility of federal party leaders is determined as to whether they have fulfilled 2 of the 3 requirements:
- 4% support
- 90% of candidates registered
- at least 1 MP elected under party banner
The Green Party has elected MPs while the People's Party does not. The Green Party will likely get 4% support. The first 2 requirements is based on where things are 28 days before voting day.
In the ancient times (1990s) in the United States, the moderator ran the debate while more frontline type journalists asked tougher questions. The U.S. shifted away from that format to put all the power into a single moderator to run the debate and ask the questions.
Unfortunately, the 2025 federal debates will have a single moderator and no journalists questions. The leaders debate commission, which picked CBC/Radio-Canada to put on the debates, has selected TVO journalist Steve Paikin (English) and Radio-Canada's Patrice Roy (French) to host the debates. Both Paikin and Roy have been in that role in the past.
Both Paikin and Roy have hosted leaders' debates in the past. Really difficult to get to the heart of some concerns without a single woman to ask a question during a federal leaders debate.
The French debate will take place April 16 at 8 pm Eastern with the English debate on April 17 at 7 pm Eastern. Both debates will be held at the Maison de Radio-Canada in Montréal.
There will be foreign interference in this election. The dark, brooding storm clouds from south of the 49th parallel will play a significant role in this election. Will "Elbows Up" extend beyond smarter choices in the grocery store to an increased turnout? Can more Ontarians turn out for the federal election than their own provincial election?
The conservative strategy is a lower turnout with vote splitting in ridings with the Liberals and the NDP. Can the NDP make a push to get more federal seats. If Carney gets a minority government, will Singh be along for the ride?
We will try and do some Canadian election notebooks during the campaign. No promises. This is a rough time in the life of your humble narrator. Any notebook will be as comprehensive as we can make it. We sincerely say "sorry" we can't do better.
Canadians: vote. Vote smartly. Vote strategically. Vote. If the federal turnout could be as high as the 2021 turnout in the Carleton riding (74.57%), if the Carleton riding turnout could hit 85%, Canada might be in pretty good shape. The mainstream Canadian press will treat you like this election does not matter. They are lying to you: Canadians can make all the difference needed.
photo credits: CBC News
Twitter captures: @brucefanjoy; @justintrudeau; @TheJasonPugh
